Elon Musk’s September 2 announcement that Grok 4.7 would launch in roughly 10 days has anchored trader expectations around mid-September, with the market-implied odds reflecting both the explicit timeline and xAI’s pattern of modest slippage on prior Grok 4.x releases. The 2.1-trillion-parameter model, incorporating supplemental training on proprietary SpaceX engineering data, is positioned as a step up from the 1.5-trillion-parameter Grok 4.6 shipped August 12, promising gains in real-world engineering and token efficiency at the cost of slightly slower inference. Closely matched probabilities across September 12–17 dates capture the balance between Musk’s latest signal and the historical gap between founder targets and actual deployment, while low odds on later dates or “no release by September 30” underscore the expectation of an imminent rollout absent major technical or regulatory surprises.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วSeptember 12 38.7%
September 15 29.6%
September 17 29.4%
September 16 28.3%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 9, 2026
On or prior to September 9
<1%
September 10
1%
September 11
1%
September 12
39%
September 13
1%
September 14
34%
September 15
30%
September 16
28%
September 17
29%
September 18
21%
September 19
1%
September 20
1%
September 21
1%
September 22
3%
September 23
7%
September 24
3%
September 25
1%
September 26
<1%
September 27
<1%
September 28
1%
September 29
1%
September 30
1%
No release by September 30
3%
September 12 38.7%
September 15 29.6%
September 17 29.4%
September 16 28.3%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 9, 2026
On or prior to September 9
$166 ปริมาณ
<1%
September 10
$202 ปริมาณ
1%
September 11
$205 ปริมาณ
1%
September 12
$550 ปริมาณ
39%
September 13
$322 ปริมาณ
1%
September 14
$205 ปริมาณ
34%
September 15
$257 ปริมาณ
30%
September 16
$215 ปริมาณ
28%
September 17
$215 ปริมาณ
29%
September 18
$411 ปริมาณ
21%
September 19
$530 ปริมาณ
1%
September 20
$505 ปริมาณ
1%
September 21
$505 ปริมาณ
1%
September 22
$345 ปริมาณ
3%
September 23
$572 ปริมาณ
7%
September 24
$345 ปริมาณ
3%
September 25
$505 ปริมาณ
1%
September 26
$505 ปริมาณ
<1%
September 27
$505 ปริมาณ
<1%
September 28
$379 ปริมาณ
1%
September 29
$379 ปริมาณ
1%
September 30
$505 ปริมาณ
1%
No release by September 30
$345 ปริมาณ
3%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Elon Musk’s September 2 announcement that Grok 4.7 would launch in roughly 10 days has anchored trader expectations around mid-September, with the market-implied odds reflecting both the explicit timeline and xAI’s pattern of modest slippage on prior Grok 4.x releases. The 2.1-trillion-parameter model, incorporating supplemental training on proprietary SpaceX engineering data, is positioned as a step up from the 1.5-trillion-parameter Grok 4.6 shipped August 12, promising gains in real-world engineering and token efficiency at the cost of slightly slower inference. Closely matched probabilities across September 12–17 dates capture the balance between Musk’s latest signal and the historical gap between founder targets and actual deployment, while low odds on later dates or “no release by September 30” underscore the expectation of an imminent rollout absent major technical or regulatory surprises.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Sep 3, 2026, 8:19 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$8,674วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 30, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 3, 2026, 8:19 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Elon Musk’s September 2 announcement that Grok 4.7 would launch in roughly 10 days has anchored trader expectations around mid-September, with the market-implied odds reflecting both the explicit timeline and xAI’s pattern of modest slippage on prior Grok 4.x releases. The 2.1-trillion-parameter model, incorporating supplemental training on proprietary SpaceX engineering data, is positioned as a step up from the 1.5-trillion-parameter Grok 4.6 shipped August 12, promising gains in real-world engineering and token efficiency at the cost of slightly slower inference. Closely matched probabilities across September 12–17 dates capture the balance between Musk’s latest signal and the historical gap between founder targets and actual deployment, while low odds on later dates or “no release by September 30” underscore the expectation of an imminent rollout absent major technical or regulatory surprises.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$8,674วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 30, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 3, 2026, 8:19 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...Elon Musk’s September 2 announcement that Grok 4.7 would launch in roughly 10 days has anchored trader expectations around mid-September, with the market-implied odds reflecting both the explicit timeline and xAI’s pattern of modest slippage on prior Grok 4.x releases. The 2.1-trillion-parameter model, incorporating supplemental training on proprietary SpaceX engineering data, is positioned as a step up from the 1.5-trillion-parameter Grok 4.6 shipped August 12, promising gains in real-world engineering and token efficiency at the cost of slightly slower inference. Closely matched probabilities across September 12–17 dates capture the balance between Musk’s latest signal and the historical gap between founder targets and actual deployment, while low odds on later dates or “no release by September 30” underscore the expectation of an imminent rollout absent major technical or regulatory surprises.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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