Colorado's roughly 4 million active registered voters and universal mail ballot system have anchored trader expectations for the November 3, 2026, Senate contest near recent midterm levels. The June primary produced nearly 1.46 million ballots amid a competitive Democratic race, offering a baseline that, when scaled to general-election participation, aligns with the 2.55M-2.7M bracket now favored at 52.5 percent. Historical turnout in the 2022 midterm reached about 2.54 million votes, while population growth and unaffiliated voter engagement support modest increases rather than presidential-year surges. The race's Safe Democratic rating and limited national polarization reduce incentives for elevated mobilization, keeping probabilities concentrated in the 2.4M-2.85M range while discounting both lower and higher extremes. Early voting volume and demographic differentials remain the main variables that could shift these implied probabilities before Election Day.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วColorado Senate Election: Turnout
Colorado Senate Election: Turnout
2.55M-2.7M 53%
2.7M-2.85M 22%
2.4M-2.55M 19%
2.85M-3M 6.9%
<2.1M
1%
2.1M-2.25M
4%
2.25M-2.4M
3%
2.4M-2.55M
19%
2.55M-2.7M
53%
2.7M-2.85M
22%
2.85M-3M
7%
3M+
1%
2.55M-2.7M 53%
2.7M-2.85M 22%
2.4M-2.55M 19%
2.85M-3M 6.9%
<2.1M
1%
2.1M-2.25M
4%
2.25M-2.4M
3%
2.4M-2.55M
19%
2.55M-2.7M
53%
2.7M-2.85M
22%
2.85M-3M
7%
3M+
1%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Colorado, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 18, 2026, 10:07 AM ET
ผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Colorado, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...Colorado's roughly 4 million active registered voters and universal mail ballot system have anchored trader expectations for the November 3, 2026, Senate contest near recent midterm levels. The June primary produced nearly 1.46 million ballots amid a competitive Democratic race, offering a baseline that, when scaled to general-election participation, aligns with the 2.55M-2.7M bracket now favored at 52.5 percent. Historical turnout in the 2022 midterm reached about 2.54 million votes, while population growth and unaffiliated voter engagement support modest increases rather than presidential-year surges. The race's Safe Democratic rating and limited national polarization reduce incentives for elevated mobilization, keeping probabilities concentrated in the 2.4M-2.85M range while discounting both lower and higher extremes. Early voting volume and demographic differentials remain the main variables that could shift these implied probabilities before Election Day.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วที่เกี่ยวข้อง
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