**Montana's 2026 U.S. Senate contest features an open seat after Steve Daines's retirement, with Republican Kurt Alme holding a consistent lead in recent polls over Democrat Alani Bankhead and independent Seth Bodnar.** This dynamic, combined with Montana's Republican lean in federal races and a split non-Republican vote, points to moderate voter mobilization typical of a non-presidential year. Historical patterns show midterm turnout at 53.2% of eligible voters in 2022 versus 68.2% in the 2024 presidential election. Trader consensus centers on the 450K-500K range as the most likely outcome, reflecting expectations of standard participation levels without the surge often seen in tighter or higher-profile races. Upcoming debates and final get-out-the-vote efforts through early November remain the primary variables that could shift totals within or outside the leading brackets.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วMontana Senate Election: Turnout
Montana Senate Election: Turnout
450K-500K 46.2%
500K-550K 32%
<350K 6%
400K-450K 5%
<350K
6%
350K-400K
1%
400K-450K
5%
450K-500K
46%
500K-550K
32%
550K-600K
4%
600K+
1%
450K-500K 46.2%
500K-550K 32%
<350K 6%
400K-450K 5%
<350K
6%
350K-400K
1%
400K-450K
5%
450K-500K
46%
500K-550K
32%
550K-600K
4%
600K+
1%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Montana, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 18, 2026, 10:12 AM ET
ผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Montana, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...**Montana's 2026 U.S. Senate contest features an open seat after Steve Daines's retirement, with Republican Kurt Alme holding a consistent lead in recent polls over Democrat Alani Bankhead and independent Seth Bodnar.** This dynamic, combined with Montana's Republican lean in federal races and a split non-Republican vote, points to moderate voter mobilization typical of a non-presidential year. Historical patterns show midterm turnout at 53.2% of eligible voters in 2022 versus 68.2% in the 2024 presidential election. Trader consensus centers on the 450K-500K range as the most likely outcome, reflecting expectations of standard participation levels without the surge often seen in tighter or higher-profile races. Upcoming debates and final get-out-the-vote efforts through early November remain the primary variables that could shift totals within or outside the leading brackets.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วที่เกี่ยวข้อง
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Massachusetts be between 2,800,000 and 2,950,000?
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Idaho be between 600,000 and 640,000?
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Wyoming be between 190,000 and 210,000?
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย