Arizona's 2026 gubernatorial race between incumbent Democrat Katie Hobbs and Republican nominee Andy Biggs features a closely contested matchup in a state with roughly 4.3 million registered voters. Recent July primary turnout fell to just 27%, the lowest in nearly two decades, reflecting subdued enthusiasm ahead of the November 3 general election and potentially carrying over to moderate overall participation. Historical midterm patterns, including 2022's roughly 2.59 million ballots cast, combined with early voting logistics and negative campaigning trends, support trader focus on the 2.45–2.75 million range. A polarized electorate and battleground dynamics could increase mobilization, while structural factors like the shifted primary calendar and independent voter behavior introduce uncertainty that keeps leading probabilities tightly clustered.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วArizona Governor Election: Turnout
Arizona Governor Election: Turnout
2.6M-2.75M 40%
2.45M-2.6M 27%
2.75M-2.9M 19%
2.9M-3.05M 14.0%
<2M
6%
2M-2.15M
1%
2.15M-2.3M
6%
2.3M-2.45M
2%
2.45M-2.6M
27%
2.6M-2.75M
40%
2.75M-2.9M
19%
2.9M-3.05M
8%
3.05M-3.2M
12%
3.2M+
5%
2.6M-2.75M 40%
2.45M-2.6M 27%
2.75M-2.9M 19%
2.9M-3.05M 14.0%
<2M
6%
2M-2.15M
1%
2.15M-2.3M
6%
2.3M-2.45M
2%
2.45M-2.6M
27%
2.6M-2.75M
40%
2.75M-2.9M
19%
2.9M-3.05M
8%
3.05M-3.2M
12%
3.2M+
5%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Arizona, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 18, 2026, 10:08 AM ET
ผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Arizona, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...Arizona's 2026 gubernatorial race between incumbent Democrat Katie Hobbs and Republican nominee Andy Biggs features a closely contested matchup in a state with roughly 4.3 million registered voters. Recent July primary turnout fell to just 27%, the lowest in nearly two decades, reflecting subdued enthusiasm ahead of the November 3 general election and potentially carrying over to moderate overall participation. Historical midterm patterns, including 2022's roughly 2.59 million ballots cast, combined with early voting logistics and negative campaigning trends, support trader focus on the 2.45–2.75 million range. A polarized electorate and battleground dynamics could increase mobilization, while structural factors like the shifted primary calendar and independent voter behavior introduce uncertainty that keeps leading probabilities tightly clustered.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วที่เกี่ยวข้อง
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of California be between 10,500,000 and 11,000,000?
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Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Wisconsin be between 2,600,000 and 2,800,000?
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