OpenAI’s heavy focus on core large language model releases like GPT-6 Astra, ChatGPT superapp integrations for agents and coding tools, and preparations for an IPO explains the 94.5% market-implied odds against a 2026 social network launch. Early prototypes from 2025, including an internal image-generation feed and a small biometric “humans-only” concept, have shown no concrete progress or staffing growth beyond a handful of engineers, while the short-lived Sora AI video app was discontinued by March 2026 due to engagement and moderation issues. Traders see limited bandwidth for a full standalone platform by year-end given these priorities and the competitive landscape of established social apps. A rapid pivot or deep integration into existing ChatGPT surfaces remains a low-probability swing factor.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоВыпустит ли OpenAI социальную сеть в 2026 году?
Выпустит ли OpenAI социальную сеть в 2026 году?
Да
6% вероятность
$63,732 Объем
$63,732 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
6% вероятность
$63,732 Объем
$63,732 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI launches a social network by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.OpenAI’s heavy focus on core large language model releases like GPT-6 Astra, ChatGPT superapp integrations for agents and coding tools, and preparations for an IPO explains the 94.5% market-implied odds against a 2026 social network launch. Early prototypes from 2025, including an internal image-generation feed and a small biometric “humans-only” concept, have shown no concrete progress or staffing growth beyond a handful of engineers, while the short-lived Sora AI video app was discontinued by March 2026 due to engagement and moderation issues. Traders see limited bandwidth for a full standalone platform by year-end given these priorities and the competitive landscape of established social apps. A rapid pivot or deep integration into existing ChatGPT surfaces remains a low-probability swing factor.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI launches a social network by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Открытие рынка: Jan 29, 2026, 3:36 PM ET
Объем
$63,732Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 29, 2026, 3:36 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI launches a social network by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.OpenAI’s heavy focus on core large language model releases like GPT-6 Astra, ChatGPT superapp integrations for agents and coding tools, and preparations for an IPO explains the 94.5% market-implied odds against a 2026 social network launch. Early prototypes from 2025, including an internal image-generation feed and a small biometric “humans-only” concept, have shown no concrete progress or staffing growth beyond a handful of engineers, while the short-lived Sora AI video app was discontinued by March 2026 due to engagement and moderation issues. Traders see limited bandwidth for a full standalone platform by year-end given these priorities and the competitive landscape of established social apps. A rapid pivot or deep integration into existing ChatGPT surfaces remains a low-probability swing factor.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI launches a social network by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Объем
$63,732Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 29, 2026, 3:36 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...OpenAI’s heavy focus on core large language model releases like GPT-6 Astra, ChatGPT superapp integrations for agents and coding tools, and preparations for an IPO explains the 94.5% market-implied odds against a 2026 social network launch. Early prototypes from 2025, including an internal image-generation feed and a small biometric “humans-only” concept, have shown no concrete progress or staffing growth beyond a handful of engineers, while the short-lived Sora AI video app was discontinued by March 2026 due to engagement and moderation issues. Traders see limited bandwidth for a full standalone platform by year-end given these priorities and the competitive landscape of established social apps. A rapid pivot or deep integration into existing ChatGPT surfaces remains a low-probability swing factor.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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