Wisconsin's 4th congressional district, anchored in Milwaukee County and rated D+26 by the Cook Partisan Voting Index, has delivered consistent double-digit Democratic margins in recent cycles, including Gwen Moore's 74.8% share in 2024. Incumbent Moore secured the Democratic nomination in the August 11 primary and faces Republican Tim Rogers, a perennial candidate who prevailed in his party's low-turnout primary, along with independent Arthur Burks in the November 3 general election. Forecasters classify the contest as Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting limited opposition fundraising and the district's partisan composition. Trader pricing at 95.8% for the Democratic nominee aligns with this structural advantage. Late developments such as a major scandal, health-related withdrawal, or unprecedented turnout surge could narrow the outcome, though historical patterns indicate such shifts remain rare in this seat.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоWI-04 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
WI-04 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
$36,788 Объем
$36,788 Объем
2 нояб. 2026 г.
Гвен Мур (Д)
96%
Тим Роджерс (Р)
1%
$36,788 Объем
$36,788 Объем
2 нояб. 2026 г.
Гвен Мур (Д)
$14,357 Объем
96%
Тим Роджерс (Р)
$22,431 Объем
1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Wisconsin's 4th congressional district, anchored in Milwaukee County and rated D+26 by the Cook Partisan Voting Index, has delivered consistent double-digit Democratic margins in recent cycles, including Gwen Moore's 74.8% share in 2024. Incumbent Moore secured the Democratic nomination in the August 11 primary and faces Republican Tim Rogers, a perennial candidate who prevailed in his party's low-turnout primary, along with independent Arthur Burks in the November 3 general election. Forecasters classify the contest as Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting limited opposition fundraising and the district's partisan composition. Trader pricing at 95.8% for the Democratic nominee aligns with this structural advantage. Late developments such as a major scandal, health-related withdrawal, or unprecedented turnout surge could narrow the outcome, though historical patterns indicate such shifts remain rare in this seat.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Объем
$36,788Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Wisconsin's 4th congressional district, anchored in Milwaukee County and rated D+26 by the Cook Partisan Voting Index, has delivered consistent double-digit Democratic margins in recent cycles, including Gwen Moore's 74.8% share in 2024. Incumbent Moore secured the Democratic nomination in the August 11 primary and faces Republican Tim Rogers, a perennial candidate who prevailed in his party's low-turnout primary, along with independent Arthur Burks in the November 3 general election. Forecasters classify the contest as Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting limited opposition fundraising and the district's partisan composition. Trader pricing at 95.8% for the Democratic nominee aligns with this structural advantage. Late developments such as a major scandal, health-related withdrawal, or unprecedented turnout surge could narrow the outcome, though historical patterns indicate such shifts remain rare in this seat.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$36,788Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...Wisconsin's 4th congressional district, anchored in Milwaukee County and rated D+26 by the Cook Partisan Voting Index, has delivered consistent double-digit Democratic margins in recent cycles, including Gwen Moore's 74.8% share in 2024. Incumbent Moore secured the Democratic nomination in the August 11 primary and faces Republican Tim Rogers, a perennial candidate who prevailed in his party's low-turnout primary, along with independent Arthur Burks in the November 3 general election. Forecasters classify the contest as Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting limited opposition fundraising and the district's partisan composition. Trader pricing at 95.8% for the Democratic nominee aligns with this structural advantage. Late developments such as a major scandal, health-related withdrawal, or unprecedented turnout surge could narrow the outcome, though historical patterns indicate such shifts remain rare in this seat.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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