Anthropic’s recent releases of Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 on September 1 have solidified its lead in frontier large language model performance, driving the 75% market-implied probability that the company holds the top spot by end of October. These Mythos-class models top independent benchmarks such as the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and BenchAlign leaderboards, excelling in agentic coding, reasoning, and knowledge work through advances in adaptive thinking and long-context handling. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra series remains the closest rival but trails slightly on composite scores, while Google, Meta, and others sit further behind amid slower recent progress. Traders appear to weigh Anthropic’s consistent edge and rapid iteration pace against the possibility of a surprise October release from competitors shifting the leaderboard before resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоКакая компания имеет модель искусственного интеллекта №1 в конце октября? (Управление стилем включено)
Какая компания имеет модель искусственного интеллекта №1 в конце октября? (Управление стилем включено)
Anthropic 75%
OpenAI 16.8%
Meta 4.5%
Google 2.7%
$18,758 Объем
$18,758 Объем
31 окт. 2026 г.
Anthropic
75%
OpenAI
17%
Meta
5%
3%
Baidu
2%
Alibaba
1%
Moonshot
1%
Z.ai
1%
Nvidia
1%
SpaceXAI
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Tencent
1%
Microsoft
1%
ByteDance
1%
MiniMax
1%
Thinky
1%
Meituan
1%
StepFun
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Anthropic 75%
OpenAI 16.8%
Meta 4.5%
Google 2.7%
$18,758 Объем
$18,758 Объем
31 окт. 2026 г.
Anthropic
$12,580 Объем
75%
OpenAI
$448 Объем
17%
Meta
$283 Объем
5%
$325 Объем
3%
Baidu
$166 Объем
2%
Alibaba
$326 Объем
1%
Moonshot
$357 Объем
1%
Z.ai
$366 Объем
1%
Nvidia
$290 Объем
1%
SpaceXAI
$247 Объем
1%
DeepSeek
$307 Объем
1%
Tencent
$286 Объем
1%
Microsoft
$283 Объем
1%
ByteDance
$302 Объем
1%
MiniMax
$328 Объем
1%
Thinky
$294 Объем
1%
Meituan
$286 Объем
1%
StepFun
$287 Объем
<1%
Xiaomi
$422 Объем
<1%
Amazon
$290 Объем
<1%
Mistral
$287 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s recent releases of Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 on September 1 have solidified its lead in frontier large language model performance, driving the 75% market-implied probability that the company holds the top spot by end of October. These Mythos-class models top independent benchmarks such as the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and BenchAlign leaderboards, excelling in agentic coding, reasoning, and knowledge work through advances in adaptive thinking and long-context handling. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra series remains the closest rival but trails slightly on composite scores, while Google, Meta, and others sit further behind amid slower recent progress. Traders appear to weigh Anthropic’s consistent edge and rapid iteration pace against the possibility of a surprise October release from competitors shifting the leaderboard before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Открытие рынка: Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Объем
$18,758Дата окончания
1 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s recent releases of Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 on September 1 have solidified its lead in frontier large language model performance, driving the 75% market-implied probability that the company holds the top spot by end of October. These Mythos-class models top independent benchmarks such as the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and BenchAlign leaderboards, excelling in agentic coding, reasoning, and knowledge work through advances in adaptive thinking and long-context handling. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra series remains the closest rival but trails slightly on composite scores, while Google, Meta, and others sit further behind amid slower recent progress. Traders appear to weigh Anthropic’s consistent edge and rapid iteration pace against the possibility of a surprise October release from competitors shifting the leaderboard before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Объем
$18,758Дата окончания
1 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s recent releases of Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 on September 1 have solidified its lead in frontier large language model performance, driving the 75% market-implied probability that the company holds the top spot by end of October. These Mythos-class models top independent benchmarks such as the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and BenchAlign leaderboards, excelling in agentic coding, reasoning, and knowledge work through advances in adaptive thinking and long-context handling. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra series remains the closest rival but trails slightly on composite scores, while Google, Meta, and others sit further behind amid slower recent progress. Traders appear to weigh Anthropic’s consistent edge and rapid iteration pace against the possibility of a surprise October release from competitors shifting the leaderboard before resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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