The September 18 by-election in Samoa’s Vaimauga 3 constituency follows the Electoral Court’s June ruling voiding the prior winner’s seat over bribery convictions, creating the third contest in the district in roughly a year. With FAST fielding Nonu Laulu William Mauia alongside Puaalatamai Filemoni and HRPP backing Vaiofuaiupolu Chris Faaofo, plus multiple independents including Sooialo Lemigaoitamalii Sooialo, the fragmented field and short nomination-to-poll window have kept implied probabilities tightly clustered. Trader consensus reflects the absence of recent polling, ongoing party realignments after earlier defections, and uncertainty over local turnout in a constituency with a pattern of narrow margins and post-election legal challenges. Pre-polling on September 16 and any final endorsements or withdrawals before the writ return could shift positioning among the leading names.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоНону Лемауга Лаулу Уильям Мауиа 43%
Ваёфуаиуполу Крис Фаофо 19%
Суиало Лемигаоитамалии Суиало 15.6%
Пуаалатамай Тупуола Малаеулу Филемони 4.5%
Нону Лемауга Лаулу Уильям Мауиа
43%
Ваёфуаиуполу Крис Фаофо
19%
Суиало Лемигаоитамалии Суиало
16%
Пуаалатамай Тупуола Малаеулу Филемони
5%
Нону Лемауга Лаулу Уильям Мауиа 43%
Ваёфуаиуполу Крис Фаофо 19%
Суиало Лемигаоитамалии Суиало 15.6%
Пуаалатамай Тупуола Малаеулу Филемони 4.5%
Нону Лемауга Лаулу Уильям Мауиа
43%
Ваёфуаиуполу Крис Фаофо
19%
Суиало Лемигаоитамалии Суиало
16%
Пуаалатамай Тупуола Малаеулу Филемони
5%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Vaimauga 3 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Samoa.
If the result of this election isn't known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Office of the Electoral Commission of Samoa (https://www.oec.gov.ws/; https://www.facebook.com/oecsamoa).
Открытие рынка: Aug 31, 2026, 3:58 PM ET
Кто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Vaimauga 3 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Samoa.
If the result of this election isn't known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Office of the Electoral Commission of Samoa (https://www.oec.gov.ws/; https://www.facebook.com/oecsamoa).
Кто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...The September 18 by-election in Samoa’s Vaimauga 3 constituency follows the Electoral Court’s June ruling voiding the prior winner’s seat over bribery convictions, creating the third contest in the district in roughly a year. With FAST fielding Nonu Laulu William Mauia alongside Puaalatamai Filemoni and HRPP backing Vaiofuaiupolu Chris Faaofo, plus multiple independents including Sooialo Lemigaoitamalii Sooialo, the fragmented field and short nomination-to-poll window have kept implied probabilities tightly clustered. Trader consensus reflects the absence of recent polling, ongoing party realignments after earlier defections, and uncertainty over local turnout in a constituency with a pattern of narrow margins and post-election legal challenges. Pre-polling on September 16 and any final endorsements or withdrawals before the writ return could shift positioning among the leading names.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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