Incumbent Democrat Jennifer McClellan holds a commanding position in Virginia’s 4th congressional district ahead of the November 3, 2026, general election, consistent with trader consensus around 96 percent for a Democratic victory. The seat features a D+17 Partisan Voter Index and delivered a roughly 33-point Democratic margin in the prior presidential cycle, with boundaries anchored in Richmond and Southside Virginia that favor the party. McClellan advanced unopposed through a canceled Democratic primary and benefits from established fundraising and name recognition. Republican nominee Robert Murray and independent Joan Bell have drawn limited visibility and resources. All major forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or national political realignment could still alter the outcome, though structural factors make such shifts improbable.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоVA-04 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
VA-04 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
$41,614 Объем
$41,614 Объем
2 нояб. 2026 г.
Дженнифер МакКлеллан (Д)
96%
Роберт Мюррей (Р)
2%
$41,614 Объем
$41,614 Объем
2 нояб. 2026 г.
Дженнифер МакКлеллан (Д)
$12,217 Объем
96%
Роберт Мюррей (Р)
$29,397 Объем
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Jennifer McClellan holds a commanding position in Virginia’s 4th congressional district ahead of the November 3, 2026, general election, consistent with trader consensus around 96 percent for a Democratic victory. The seat features a D+17 Partisan Voter Index and delivered a roughly 33-point Democratic margin in the prior presidential cycle, with boundaries anchored in Richmond and Southside Virginia that favor the party. McClellan advanced unopposed through a canceled Democratic primary and benefits from established fundraising and name recognition. Republican nominee Robert Murray and independent Joan Bell have drawn limited visibility and resources. All major forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or national political realignment could still alter the outcome, though structural factors make such shifts improbable.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Объем
$41,614Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Jennifer McClellan holds a commanding position in Virginia’s 4th congressional district ahead of the November 3, 2026, general election, consistent with trader consensus around 96 percent for a Democratic victory. The seat features a D+17 Partisan Voter Index and delivered a roughly 33-point Democratic margin in the prior presidential cycle, with boundaries anchored in Richmond and Southside Virginia that favor the party. McClellan advanced unopposed through a canceled Democratic primary and benefits from established fundraising and name recognition. Republican nominee Robert Murray and independent Joan Bell have drawn limited visibility and resources. All major forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or national political realignment could still alter the outcome, though structural factors make such shifts improbable.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$41,614Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Jennifer McClellan holds a commanding position in Virginia’s 4th congressional district ahead of the November 3, 2026, general election, consistent with trader consensus around 96 percent for a Democratic victory. The seat features a D+17 Partisan Voter Index and delivered a roughly 33-point Democratic margin in the prior presidential cycle, with boundaries anchored in Richmond and Southside Virginia that favor the party. McClellan advanced unopposed through a canceled Democratic primary and benefits from established fundraising and name recognition. Republican nominee Robert Murray and independent Joan Bell have drawn limited visibility and resources. All major forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or national political realignment could still alter the outcome, though structural factors make such shifts improbable.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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