US policy has long upheld Ukraine's territorial integrity as a core principle, reinforced by sustained military aid, NATO coordination, and sanctions targeting Russian advances since 2022. In September 2026, with the conflict unresolved and no bilateral agreement ceding sovereignty, a formal US recognition before 2027 would require an abrupt reversal unlikely under current diplomatic alignments or congressional oversight. Trader consensus at 96% reflects these structural barriers, including alliance commitments and domestic political risks. Late shifts could still arise from a negotiated settlement incorporating territorial concessions, a new administration prioritizing different foreign policy priorities, or major battlefield developments altering leverage before the end of 2026.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
4% вероятность
$187,736 Объем
$187,736 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
4% вероятность
$187,736 Объем
$187,736 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government officially recognizes Russian sovereignty over any portion of Ukrainian territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action.
Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify.
Ukrainian territory is defined as any portion of Ukraine as recognized by the UN at the start of the present conflict on February 24, 2022, including Crimea.
The resolution source will be official U.S. government statements and credible reporting from major news organizations.US policy has long upheld Ukraine's territorial integrity as a core principle, reinforced by sustained military aid, NATO coordination, and sanctions targeting Russian advances since 2022. In September 2026, with the conflict unresolved and no bilateral agreement ceding sovereignty, a formal US recognition before 2027 would require an abrupt reversal unlikely under current diplomatic alignments or congressional oversight. Trader consensus at 96% reflects these structural barriers, including alliance commitments and domestic political risks. Late shifts could still arise from a negotiated settlement incorporating territorial concessions, a new administration prioritizing different foreign policy priorities, or major battlefield developments altering leverage before the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government officially recognizes Russian sovereignty over any portion of Ukrainian territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action.
Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify.
Ukrainian territory is defined as any portion of Ukraine as recognized by the UN at the start of the present conflict on February 24, 2022, including Crimea.
The resolution source will be official U.S. government statements and credible reporting from major news organizations.
Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action.
Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify.
Ukrainian territory is defined as any portion of Ukraine as recognized by the UN at the start of the present conflict on February 24, 2022, including Crimea.
The resolution source will be official U.S. government statements and credible reporting from major news organizations.
Открытие рынка: Nov 13, 2025, 5:51 PM ET
Объем
$187,736Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 13, 2025, 5:51 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government officially recognizes Russian sovereignty over any portion of Ukrainian territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action.
Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify.
Ukrainian territory is defined as any portion of Ukraine as recognized by the UN at the start of the present conflict on February 24, 2022, including Crimea.
The resolution source will be official U.S. government statements and credible reporting from major news organizations.US policy has long upheld Ukraine's territorial integrity as a core principle, reinforced by sustained military aid, NATO coordination, and sanctions targeting Russian advances since 2022. In September 2026, with the conflict unresolved and no bilateral agreement ceding sovereignty, a formal US recognition before 2027 would require an abrupt reversal unlikely under current diplomatic alignments or congressional oversight. Trader consensus at 96% reflects these structural barriers, including alliance commitments and domestic political risks. Late shifts could still arise from a negotiated settlement incorporating territorial concessions, a new administration prioritizing different foreign policy priorities, or major battlefield developments altering leverage before the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government officially recognizes Russian sovereignty over any portion of Ukrainian territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action.
Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify.
Ukrainian territory is defined as any portion of Ukraine as recognized by the UN at the start of the present conflict on February 24, 2022, including Crimea.
The resolution source will be official U.S. government statements and credible reporting from major news organizations.
Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action.
Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify.
Ukrainian territory is defined as any portion of Ukraine as recognized by the UN at the start of the present conflict on February 24, 2022, including Crimea.
The resolution source will be official U.S. government statements and credible reporting from major news organizations.
Объем
$187,736Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 13, 2025, 5:51 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...US policy has long upheld Ukraine's territorial integrity as a core principle, reinforced by sustained military aid, NATO coordination, and sanctions targeting Russian advances since 2022. In September 2026, with the conflict unresolved and no bilateral agreement ceding sovereignty, a formal US recognition before 2027 would require an abrupt reversal unlikely under current diplomatic alignments or congressional oversight. Trader consensus at 96% reflects these structural barriers, including alliance commitments and domestic political risks. Late shifts could still arise from a negotiated settlement incorporating territorial concessions, a new administration prioritizing different foreign policy priorities, or major battlefield developments altering leverage before the end of 2026.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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