Traders assign a 97% implied probability against a U.S. debt default by 2027 because Congress has consistently raised or suspended the debt limit ahead of any payment disruption, preserving the Treasury’s ability to meet obligations through extraordinary measures. The statutory ceiling, lifted to $41.1 trillion in the 2025 reconciliation law, is projected to bind in spring or summer 2027, with the X-date falling in late 2027 or early 2028 under current fiscal trajectories. Bipartisan incentives, the dollar’s reserve-currency status, and the severe economic costs of even a brief default reinforce expectations that lawmakers will act. Credible scenarios that could still shift odds include an unusually prolonged standoff in a divided Congress that exhausts cash buffers precisely at the X-date, or an unforeseen fiscal shock that compresses the timeline for resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДефолты США по долгам к 2027 году?
Дефолты США по долгам к 2027 году?
Да
3% вероятность
$18,051 Объем
$18,051 Объем
30 дек. 2026 г.
Да
3% вероятность
$18,051 Объем
$18,051 Объем
30 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Traders assign a 97% implied probability against a U.S. debt default by 2027 because Congress has consistently raised or suspended the debt limit ahead of any payment disruption, preserving the Treasury’s ability to meet obligations through extraordinary measures. The statutory ceiling, lifted to $41.1 trillion in the 2025 reconciliation law, is projected to bind in spring or summer 2027, with the X-date falling in late 2027 or early 2028 under current fiscal trajectories. Bipartisan incentives, the dollar’s reserve-currency status, and the severe economic costs of even a brief default reinforce expectations that lawmakers will act. Credible scenarios that could still shift odds include an unusually prolonged standoff in a divided Congress that exhausts cash buffers precisely at the X-date, or an unforeseen fiscal shock that compresses the timeline for resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Открытие рынка: Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ET
Объем
$18,051Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Traders assign a 97% implied probability against a U.S. debt default by 2027 because Congress has consistently raised or suspended the debt limit ahead of any payment disruption, preserving the Treasury’s ability to meet obligations through extraordinary measures. The statutory ceiling, lifted to $41.1 trillion in the 2025 reconciliation law, is projected to bind in spring or summer 2027, with the X-date falling in late 2027 or early 2028 under current fiscal trajectories. Bipartisan incentives, the dollar’s reserve-currency status, and the severe economic costs of even a brief default reinforce expectations that lawmakers will act. Credible scenarios that could still shift odds include an unusually prolonged standoff in a divided Congress that exhausts cash buffers precisely at the X-date, or an unforeseen fiscal shock that compresses the timeline for resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Объем
$18,051Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 97% implied probability against a U.S. debt default by 2027 because Congress has consistently raised or suspended the debt limit ahead of any payment disruption, preserving the Treasury’s ability to meet obligations through extraordinary measures. The statutory ceiling, lifted to $41.1 trillion in the 2025 reconciliation law, is projected to bind in spring or summer 2027, with the X-date falling in late 2027 or early 2028 under current fiscal trajectories. Bipartisan incentives, the dollar’s reserve-currency status, and the severe economic costs of even a brief default reinforce expectations that lawmakers will act. Credible scenarios that could still shift odds include an unusually prolonged standoff in a divided Congress that exhausts cash buffers precisely at the X-date, or an unforeseen fiscal shock that compresses the timeline for resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы