Ken Paxton holds a modest edge in trader odds for carrying Denton County in the November 3 U.S. Senate contest because the suburban Dallas-Fort Worth county delivered him a 27-point margin over incumbent John Cornyn in the May Republican runoff, reflecting strong grassroots and Trump-aligned support there. The broader race remains closely contested, with recent polls showing Talarico and Paxton separated by low single digits statewide amid over $150 million in outside spending and mutual attacks on fundraising sources, past legal issues, and policy priorities such as affordability. Denton County’s mix of established Republican voters and shifting suburban demographics keeps the local outcome uncertain, with turnout among independents and key voting blocs likely to determine separation in the final weeks.