Recent successful Super Heavy booster tower catches in Flights 8 and 9, combined with Flight 13’s intact Starship upper-stage splashdown and undamaged heat shield data in July 2026, underpin the 61% market-implied odds for full reusability before 2028. These milestones validate rapid recovery architecture and provide critical reentry performance insights, while Elon Musk’s statements on imminent ship tower-catch attempts and upper-stage reflights by late 2026 or early 2027 signal aggressive iteration. Version 3 upgrades, Raptor engine reliability gains, and planned orbital refueling tests further support trader consensus. Remaining hurdles include ship capture at higher velocities, sustained heat-shield durability across multiple flights, and regulatory approvals, yet the pace of demonstrated progress keeps the probability above even.