Incumbent Democrat Herb Conaway holds a strong position in New Jersey’s 3rd congressional district heading into the November 3, 2026, general election. The district’s consistent Democratic lean in recent presidential voting, combined with Conaway’s unopposed primary and substantial fundraising edge, has produced broad trader consensus favoring his reelection. Republican nominee Michael McGuire, a Marine veteran and former NYPD officer who prevailed in a June primary, faces structural headwinds in a seat rated solid Democratic by multiple forecasters. Low-probability shifts could occur from a sharp national partisan swing, late-breaking developments affecting turnout, or unusual campaign momentum, though no such catalysts have materialized in recent months.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоNJ-03 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
NJ-03 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
$32,145 Объем
$32,145 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Херб Конауэй (Д)
95%
Майкл МакГуайр (Р)
6%
$32,145 Объем
$32,145 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Херб Конауэй (Д)
$13,546 Объем
95%
Майкл МакГуайр (Р)
$18,599 Объем
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Herb Conaway holds a strong position in New Jersey’s 3rd congressional district heading into the November 3, 2026, general election. The district’s consistent Democratic lean in recent presidential voting, combined with Conaway’s unopposed primary and substantial fundraising edge, has produced broad trader consensus favoring his reelection. Republican nominee Michael McGuire, a Marine veteran and former NYPD officer who prevailed in a June primary, faces structural headwinds in a seat rated solid Democratic by multiple forecasters. Low-probability shifts could occur from a sharp national partisan swing, late-breaking developments affecting turnout, or unusual campaign momentum, though no such catalysts have materialized in recent months.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Объем
$32,145Дата окончания
4 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Herb Conaway holds a strong position in New Jersey’s 3rd congressional district heading into the November 3, 2026, general election. The district’s consistent Democratic lean in recent presidential voting, combined with Conaway’s unopposed primary and substantial fundraising edge, has produced broad trader consensus favoring his reelection. Republican nominee Michael McGuire, a Marine veteran and former NYPD officer who prevailed in a June primary, faces structural headwinds in a seat rated solid Democratic by multiple forecasters. Low-probability shifts could occur from a sharp national partisan swing, late-breaking developments affecting turnout, or unusual campaign momentum, though no such catalysts have materialized in recent months.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$32,145Дата окончания
4 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Herb Conaway holds a strong position in New Jersey’s 3rd congressional district heading into the November 3, 2026, general election. The district’s consistent Democratic lean in recent presidential voting, combined with Conaway’s unopposed primary and substantial fundraising edge, has produced broad trader consensus favoring his reelection. Republican nominee Michael McGuire, a Marine veteran and former NYPD officer who prevailed in a June primary, faces structural headwinds in a seat rated solid Democratic by multiple forecasters. Low-probability shifts could occur from a sharp national partisan swing, late-breaking developments affecting turnout, or unusual campaign momentum, though no such catalysts have materialized in recent months.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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