Recent rule changes requiring enrolment by 25 October and barring late sign-ups during advance voting have created uncertainty around participation, particularly among youth where enrolment hovers near 57 percent despite targeted campaigns. Māori enrolment on the Māori roll has reached record levels, supporting mobilization efforts by parties and groups, while overall enrolment stands near 90 percent of eligible voters. A closely contested election with shifting party support and multiple viable coalition paths could lift engagement through heightened media attention and get-out-the-vote drives ahead of advance voting starting 26 October. Trader consensus clusters tightly around 76-82 percent turnout, reflecting these offsetting factors and limited historical precedent for major swings under the new framework. Late surges in youth or Māori participation, or conversely lower-than-expected advance voting, could shift probabilities before election day on 7 November.