Incumbent Jake Auchincloss secured the Democratic nomination for Massachusetts's 4th congressional district on September 1 with roughly 73 percent of the primary vote against challenger Jason Poulos. The solidly Democratic district, which favored Kamala Harris by 7.5 points in 2024, features limited Republican infrastructure and a fundraising edge for the sitting representative that has historically translated into large general-election margins. Tom Stalcup, the unopposed Republican nominee, faces structural barriers including low party registration and modest resources. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or unexpected independent surge could still shift probabilities, though none have materialized in recent weeks.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоMA-04 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
MA-04 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
$47,249 Объем
$47,249 Объем
2 нояб. 2026 г.
Джейк Окинклоcс (Д)
97%
Том Сталкап (Р)
1%
$47,249 Объем
$47,249 Объем
2 нояб. 2026 г.
Джейк Окинклоcс (Д)
$23,504 Объем
97%
Том Сталкап (Р)
$23,745 Объем
1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Jake Auchincloss secured the Democratic nomination for Massachusetts's 4th congressional district on September 1 with roughly 73 percent of the primary vote against challenger Jason Poulos. The solidly Democratic district, which favored Kamala Harris by 7.5 points in 2024, features limited Republican infrastructure and a fundraising edge for the sitting representative that has historically translated into large general-election margins. Tom Stalcup, the unopposed Republican nominee, faces structural barriers including low party registration and modest resources. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or unexpected independent surge could still shift probabilities, though none have materialized in recent weeks.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Объем
$47,249Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Jake Auchincloss secured the Democratic nomination for Massachusetts's 4th congressional district on September 1 with roughly 73 percent of the primary vote against challenger Jason Poulos. The solidly Democratic district, which favored Kamala Harris by 7.5 points in 2024, features limited Republican infrastructure and a fundraising edge for the sitting representative that has historically translated into large general-election margins. Tom Stalcup, the unopposed Republican nominee, faces structural barriers including low party registration and modest resources. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or unexpected independent surge could still shift probabilities, though none have materialized in recent weeks.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$47,249Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Jake Auchincloss secured the Democratic nomination for Massachusetts's 4th congressional district on September 1 with roughly 73 percent of the primary vote against challenger Jason Poulos. The solidly Democratic district, which favored Kamala Harris by 7.5 points in 2024, features limited Republican infrastructure and a fundraising edge for the sitting representative that has historically translated into large general-election margins. Tom Stalcup, the unopposed Republican nominee, faces structural barriers including low party registration and modest resources. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or unexpected independent surge could still shift probabilities, though none have materialized in recent weeks.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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