Recent forecasts from sources aligned with China Meteorological Administration guidance point to a low near 19–21°C for Wuhan on September 11, driven by moderating northerly flow behind a recent cold surge, partly cloudy skies, and light winds that limit mixing while permitting moderate nocturnal radiative cooling under typical September humidity levels around 40–50%. Model consensus shows limited overnight temperature drop potential compared with clearer or windier analogs, keeping extremes like 24°C or higher or 14°C or below as lower-probability outliers unless unexpected cloud cover or wind shifts alter the boundary layer. Traders’ near-even weighting of those tails versus clustered probabilities around 17–20°C reflects genuine uncertainty in exact minimum timing and urban heat-island effects, with resolution hinging on official overnight observations.