Traders assign 94.5% implied probability to an 18°C low in Chengdu on September 10 because official forecasts and ensemble models from regional meteorological services consistently project overnight minima near this threshold under persistent cloud cover, light rain, and high humidity near 90%. These conditions limit radiational cooling while steering patterns from the north maintain mild advection, aligning with observed temperatures holding in the mid-to-upper teens Celsius through early morning hours. Historical September climatology for the Sichuan basin supports similar values during unsettled weather. Revised model runs showing clearer skies overnight or stronger northerly flow could push readings to 15–17°C, shifting the market if station data confirm greater cooling before resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСамая низкая температура в Чэнду 10 сентября?
Самая низкая температура в Чэнду 10 сентября?
18°C 95%
15°C 56%
14°C или ниже 53%
17°C 3%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
10 сент. 2026 г.
14°C или ниже
53%
15°C
56%
16°C
2%
17°C
3%
18°C
95%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C или выше
<1%
18°C 95%
15°C 56%
14°C или ниже 53%
17°C 3%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
10 сент. 2026 г.
14°C или ниже
$35 Объем
53%
15°C
$15 Объем
56%
16°C
$87 Объем
2%
17°C
$129 Объем
3%
18°C
$64 Объем
95%
19°C
$229 Объем
<1%
20°C
$156 Объем
<1%
21°C
$55 Объем
<1%
22°C
$80 Объем
<1%
23°C
$170 Объем
<1%
24°C или выше
$85 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign 94.5% implied probability to an 18°C low in Chengdu on September 10 because official forecasts and ensemble models from regional meteorological services consistently project overnight minima near this threshold under persistent cloud cover, light rain, and high humidity near 90%. These conditions limit radiational cooling while steering patterns from the north maintain mild advection, aligning with observed temperatures holding in the mid-to-upper teens Celsius through early morning hours. Historical September climatology for the Sichuan basin supports similar values during unsettled weather. Revised model runs showing clearer skies overnight or stronger northerly flow could push readings to 15–17°C, shifting the market if station data confirm greater cooling before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: Sep 8, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Объем
$1,105Дата окончания
10 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 8, 2026, 12:30 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign 94.5% implied probability to an 18°C low in Chengdu on September 10 because official forecasts and ensemble models from regional meteorological services consistently project overnight minima near this threshold under persistent cloud cover, light rain, and high humidity near 90%. These conditions limit radiational cooling while steering patterns from the north maintain mild advection, aligning with observed temperatures holding in the mid-to-upper teens Celsius through early morning hours. Historical September climatology for the Sichuan basin supports similar values during unsettled weather. Revised model runs showing clearer skies overnight or stronger northerly flow could push readings to 15–17°C, shifting the market if station data confirm greater cooling before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Объем
$1,105Дата окончания
10 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 8, 2026, 12:30 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign 94.5% implied probability to an 18°C low in Chengdu on September 10 because official forecasts and ensemble models from regional meteorological services consistently project overnight minima near this threshold under persistent cloud cover, light rain, and high humidity near 90%. These conditions limit radiational cooling while steering patterns from the north maintain mild advection, aligning with observed temperatures holding in the mid-to-upper teens Celsius through early morning hours. Historical September climatology for the Sichuan basin supports similar values during unsettled weather. Revised model runs showing clearer skies overnight or stronger northerly flow could push readings to 15–17°C, shifting the market if station data confirm greater cooling before resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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