**Traders assign an 86.5% probability to no direct Israel-Turkey military clash before 2027, reflecting sustained US diplomatic pressure, existing deconfliction channels, and mutual restraint amid regional rivalry.** Tensions center on competition for influence in post-Assad Syria, highlighted by Israel’s August 2026 airstrikes on the Abu al-Duhur airbase to block perceived Turkish military deployments near its border. Turkish officials have condemned the strikes and issued strong rhetoric, while both sides maintain red lines without crossing into direct confrontation. Factors supporting the current odds include Turkey’s NATO membership, close US ties with both governments under President Trump, backchannel communications brokered via Azerbaijan and the US, and a preference for proxy competition over open conflict. Recent Turkish Foreign Minister visits to Damascus and ongoing diplomatic signaling have not altered this pattern of managed escalation.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоИзраиль x Турция военное столкновение до 2027 года?
Израиль x Турция военное столкновение до 2027 года?
Да
14% вероятность
$428,699 Объем
$428,699 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
14% вероятность
$428,699 Объем
$428,699 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of Israel and Turkey by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Traders assign an 86.5% probability to no direct Israel-Turkey military clash before 2027, reflecting sustained US diplomatic pressure, existing deconfliction channels, and mutual restraint amid regional rivalry.** Tensions center on competition for influence in post-Assad Syria, highlighted by Israel’s August 2026 airstrikes on the Abu al-Duhur airbase to block perceived Turkish military deployments near its border. Turkish officials have condemned the strikes and issued strong rhetoric, while both sides maintain red lines without crossing into direct confrontation. Factors supporting the current odds include Turkey’s NATO membership, close US ties with both governments under President Trump, backchannel communications brokered via Azerbaijan and the US, and a preference for proxy competition over open conflict. Recent Turkish Foreign Minister visits to Damascus and ongoing diplomatic signaling have not altered this pattern of managed escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of Israel and Turkey by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Nov 5, 2025, 2:04 PM ET
Объем
$428,699Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 2:04 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of Israel and Turkey by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Traders assign an 86.5% probability to no direct Israel-Turkey military clash before 2027, reflecting sustained US diplomatic pressure, existing deconfliction channels, and mutual restraint amid regional rivalry.** Tensions center on competition for influence in post-Assad Syria, highlighted by Israel’s August 2026 airstrikes on the Abu al-Duhur airbase to block perceived Turkish military deployments near its border. Turkish officials have condemned the strikes and issued strong rhetoric, while both sides maintain red lines without crossing into direct confrontation. Factors supporting the current odds include Turkey’s NATO membership, close US ties with both governments under President Trump, backchannel communications brokered via Azerbaijan and the US, and a preference for proxy competition over open conflict. Recent Turkish Foreign Minister visits to Damascus and ongoing diplomatic signaling have not altered this pattern of managed escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of Israel and Turkey by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$428,699Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 2:04 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...**Traders assign an 86.5% probability to no direct Israel-Turkey military clash before 2027, reflecting sustained US diplomatic pressure, existing deconfliction channels, and mutual restraint amid regional rivalry.** Tensions center on competition for influence in post-Assad Syria, highlighted by Israel’s August 2026 airstrikes on the Abu al-Duhur airbase to block perceived Turkish military deployments near its border. Turkish officials have condemned the strikes and issued strong rhetoric, while both sides maintain red lines without crossing into direct confrontation. Factors supporting the current odds include Turkey’s NATO membership, close US ties with both governments under President Trump, backchannel communications brokered via Azerbaijan and the US, and a preference for proxy competition over open conflict. Recent Turkish Foreign Minister visits to Damascus and ongoing diplomatic signaling have not altered this pattern of managed escalation.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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