The solidly Democratic character of New York’s 13th district, encompassing Upper Manhattan and parts of the Bronx, anchors trader expectations for a wide Democratic margin in the November 3 general election. Darializa Avila Chevalier secured the Democratic nomination in the June primary by narrowly defeating five-term incumbent Adriano Espaillat, yet forecasters continue to rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic with projected vote shares near 82 percent. The Republican nominee, Jomo Williams, faces structural headwinds in this urban district, reflected in the low probability assigned to a Republican victory. Sparse general-election polling and subdued campaign developments since the primary sustain the spread of probabilities across Democratic margin brackets, with separation likely to emerge from turnout differentials, any late national political shifts, or candidate-specific events in the final weeks.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоNY-13 Маржа победы на выборах в Палату представителей
NY-13 Маржа победы на выборах в Палату представителей
Democrat 70-75% 23%
Democrat 65-70% 21%
Democrat 80-85% 20.3%
Democrat 0-45% 13%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Democrat 85%+
8%
Democrat 80-85%
20%
Democrat 75-80%
5%
Democrat 70-75%
23%
Democrat 65-70%
21%
Democrat 60-65%
12%
Democrat 55-60%
10%
Democrat 45-55%
5%
Democrat 0-45%
13%
Republican Wins
1%
Democrat 70-75% 23%
Democrat 65-70% 21%
Democrat 80-85% 20.3%
Democrat 0-45% 13%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Democrat 85%+
$223 Объем
8%
Democrat 80-85%
$383 Объем
20%
Democrat 75-80%
$257 Объем
5%
Democrat 70-75%
$393 Объем
23%
Democrat 65-70%
$1,641 Объем
21%
Democrat 60-65%
$504 Объем
12%
Democrat 55-60%
$440 Объем
10%
Democrat 45-55%
$310 Объем
5%
Democrat 0-45%
$356 Объем
13%
Republican Wins
$200 Объем
1%
The 2026 NY-13 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 NY-13 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The solidly Democratic character of New York’s 13th district, encompassing Upper Manhattan and parts of the Bronx, anchors trader expectations for a wide Democratic margin in the November 3 general election. Darializa Avila Chevalier secured the Democratic nomination in the June primary by narrowly defeating five-term incumbent Adriano Espaillat, yet forecasters continue to rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic with projected vote shares near 82 percent. The Republican nominee, Jomo Williams, faces structural headwinds in this urban district, reflected in the low probability assigned to a Republican victory. Sparse general-election polling and subdued campaign developments since the primary sustain the spread of probabilities across Democratic margin brackets, with separation likely to emerge from turnout differentials, any late national political shifts, or candidate-specific events in the final weeks.
The 2026 NY-13 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 NY-13 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 NY-13 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Aug 11, 2026, 2:25 PM ET
Объем
$4,705Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 11, 2026, 2:25 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 NY-13 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 NY-13 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The solidly Democratic character of New York’s 13th district, encompassing Upper Manhattan and parts of the Bronx, anchors trader expectations for a wide Democratic margin in the November 3 general election. Darializa Avila Chevalier secured the Democratic nomination in the June primary by narrowly defeating five-term incumbent Adriano Espaillat, yet forecasters continue to rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic with projected vote shares near 82 percent. The Republican nominee, Jomo Williams, faces structural headwinds in this urban district, reflected in the low probability assigned to a Republican victory. Sparse general-election polling and subdued campaign developments since the primary sustain the spread of probabilities across Democratic margin brackets, with separation likely to emerge from turnout differentials, any late national political shifts, or candidate-specific events in the final weeks.
The 2026 NY-13 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 NY-13 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 NY-13 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$4,705Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 11, 2026, 2:25 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...The solidly Democratic character of New York’s 13th district, encompassing Upper Manhattan and parts of the Bronx, anchors trader expectations for a wide Democratic margin in the November 3 general election. Darializa Avila Chevalier secured the Democratic nomination in the June primary by narrowly defeating five-term incumbent Adriano Espaillat, yet forecasters continue to rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic with projected vote shares near 82 percent. The Republican nominee, Jomo Williams, faces structural headwinds in this urban district, reflected in the low probability assigned to a Republican victory. Sparse general-election polling and subdued campaign developments since the primary sustain the spread of probabilities across Democratic margin brackets, with separation likely to emerge from turnout differentials, any late national political shifts, or candidate-specific events in the final weeks.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСвязанные
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NY-14 House election by 45%-50%?
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Победит ли кандидат от Демократической партии на выборах в Палату представителей по округу NY-26 в 2026 году с разницей в 35–40%?
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Да
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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