**Morena maintains a commanding lead in statewide party preference ahead of the 2027 Baja California gubernatorial election, typically polling near 40 percent compared with roughly 20 percent for the PAN, which keeps the nomination contest within the ruling party as the decisive factor.** Recent surveys from mid-2026 show Julieta Ramírez Padilla holding or extending an edge in internal Morena preferences, though Ismael Burgueño Ruiz and others such as Montserrat Caballero Ramírez and Alfredo Álvarez Cárdenas remain competitive, with margins often in the low double digits or narrower depending on the poll. Candidates have taken leaves from public office to campaign, and ongoing internal positioning plus scattered reports of investigations or allegations—denied by those involved—add uncertainty without yet producing clear separation. Traders appear to price the race tightly because the eventual Morena nominee is expected to prevail in the general election, yet no single contender has locked down the party nod with consistent dominance across recent measurements. Scheduled party processes and additional polling through late 2026 could shift probabilities if one profile consolidates support or faces setbacks.