Incumbent Rick Crawford holds a commanding lead in the AR-01 House race due to the district’s strong Republican lean, reflected in its R+23 partisan voter index and consistent double-digit margins in prior cycles. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, and both major-party primaries were uncontested. Crawford’s substantial fundraising advantage and long tenure further reinforce trader consensus, while Democratic challenger Terri Yarbrough Green, a retired pathologist, has raised limited funds and faces structural barriers in this northeast Arkansas district. Scenarios that could still shift odds include late-breaking scandals, health events affecting the incumbent, or an unforeseen national political realignment boosting Democratic turnout, though such developments remain low-probability based on current conditions ahead of the November 3 general election.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоAR-01 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
AR-01 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
$26,590 Объем
$26,590 Объем
2 нояб. 2026 г.
Рик Кроуфорд (Р)
97%
Терри Грин (Д)
1%
$26,590 Объем
$26,590 Объем
2 нояб. 2026 г.
Рик Кроуфорд (Р)
$16,331 Объем
97%
Терри Грин (Д)
$10,259 Объем
1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rick Crawford holds a commanding lead in the AR-01 House race due to the district’s strong Republican lean, reflected in its R+23 partisan voter index and consistent double-digit margins in prior cycles. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, and both major-party primaries were uncontested. Crawford’s substantial fundraising advantage and long tenure further reinforce trader consensus, while Democratic challenger Terri Yarbrough Green, a retired pathologist, has raised limited funds and faces structural barriers in this northeast Arkansas district. Scenarios that could still shift odds include late-breaking scandals, health events affecting the incumbent, or an unforeseen national political realignment boosting Democratic turnout, though such developments remain low-probability based on current conditions ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Объем
$26,590Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rick Crawford holds a commanding lead in the AR-01 House race due to the district’s strong Republican lean, reflected in its R+23 partisan voter index and consistent double-digit margins in prior cycles. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, and both major-party primaries were uncontested. Crawford’s substantial fundraising advantage and long tenure further reinforce trader consensus, while Democratic challenger Terri Yarbrough Green, a retired pathologist, has raised limited funds and faces structural barriers in this northeast Arkansas district. Scenarios that could still shift odds include late-breaking scandals, health events affecting the incumbent, or an unforeseen national political realignment boosting Democratic turnout, though such developments remain low-probability based on current conditions ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$26,590Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rick Crawford holds a commanding lead in the AR-01 House race due to the district’s strong Republican lean, reflected in its R+23 partisan voter index and consistent double-digit margins in prior cycles. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, and both major-party primaries were uncontested. Crawford’s substantial fundraising advantage and long tenure further reinforce trader consensus, while Democratic challenger Terri Yarbrough Green, a retired pathologist, has raised limited funds and faces structural barriers in this northeast Arkansas district. Scenarios that could still shift odds include late-breaking scandals, health events affecting the incumbent, or an unforeseen national political realignment boosting Democratic turnout, though such developments remain low-probability based on current conditions ahead of the November 3 general election.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы