Tesla’s persistently high 85.5% market-implied odds against launching unsupervised robotaxis in California by year-end reflect the absence of required state permits and testing progress. The company continues operating under a standard charter-party carrier permit that mandates human drivers, as confirmed by CPUC regulators, while logging zero autonomous test miles with the DMV and holding no driverless deployment authorization. In contrast, competitors like Waymo secured expansive CPUC approvals across 18 counties this summer after years of documented miles and layered filings. With roughly three months remaining, the multi-step regulatory sequence—DMV permits plus CPUC passenger-service authority—has not begun, mirroring historical timelines that favor extended timelines over rapid commercial rollout.