OpenAI holds a modest edge in trader sentiment for first announcing recursive self-improvement, or RSI, largely due to its early September 2026 disclosures on reaching an "automated research intern" milestone, where agents handle multi-day research tasks under supervision, alongside internal benchmarks like the RSI Index showing measurable gains in model-driven research. Chief Scientist Jakub Pachocki highlighted expectations of sustained progress into full RSI loops, positioning OpenAI ahead of peers in public framing. Anthropic reported earlier in 2026 that Claude authors over 80% of merged code and leads 26% of R&D end-to-end, plus April demonstrations of autonomous experiment design, but its recent messaging has centered on safety risks and calls for industry-wide pacing rather than capability leaps. Upcoming catalysts include further automated researcher timelines targeted for 2028 and any verified claims of closed-loop successor design.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoOpenAI vs. Antrópico: primeiro a anunciar o auto-aperfeiçoamento recursivo?
OpenAI vs. Antrópico: primeiro a anunciar o auto-aperfeiçoamento recursivo?
OpenAI
57% chance
NOVO
NOVO
31 dez 2027
OpenAI
57% chance
NOVO
NOVO
31 dez 2027
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI, or an official representative of OpenAI, announces that OpenAI has achieved recursive self-improvement before Anthropic does so. This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic, or an official representative of Anthropic, announces that Anthropic has achieved recursive self-improvement before OpenAI does so.
If neither company makes a qualifying announcement by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or if both make qualifying announcements on the same calendar day, this market will resolve 50-50.
A qualifying announcement by any other company does not end the race or affect resolution.
Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic and/or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.OpenAI holds a modest edge in trader sentiment for first announcing recursive self-improvement, or RSI, largely due to its early September 2026 disclosures on reaching an "automated research intern" milestone, where agents handle multi-day research tasks under supervision, alongside internal benchmarks like the RSI Index showing measurable gains in model-driven research. Chief Scientist Jakub Pachocki highlighted expectations of sustained progress into full RSI loops, positioning OpenAI ahead of peers in public framing. Anthropic reported earlier in 2026 that Claude authors over 80% of merged code and leads 26% of R&D end-to-end, plus April demonstrations of autonomous experiment design, but its recent messaging has centered on safety risks and calls for industry-wide pacing rather than capability leaps. Upcoming catalysts include further automated researcher timelines targeted for 2028 and any verified claims of closed-loop successor design.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI, or an official representative of OpenAI, announces that OpenAI has achieved recursive self-improvement before Anthropic does so. This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic, or an official representative of Anthropic, announces that Anthropic has achieved recursive self-improvement before OpenAI does so.
If neither company makes a qualifying announcement by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or if both make qualifying announcements on the same calendar day, this market will resolve 50-50.
A qualifying announcement by any other company does not end the race or affect resolution.
Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic and/or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If neither company makes a qualifying announcement by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or if both make qualifying announcements on the same calendar day, this market will resolve 50-50.
A qualifying announcement by any other company does not end the race or affect resolution.
Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic and/or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Sep 18, 2026, 12:42 PM ET
Volume
$491Data de Término
1 jan 2028Mercado Aberto
Sep 18, 2026, 12:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI, or an official representative of OpenAI, announces that OpenAI has achieved recursive self-improvement before Anthropic does so. This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic, or an official representative of Anthropic, announces that Anthropic has achieved recursive self-improvement before OpenAI does so.
If neither company makes a qualifying announcement by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or if both make qualifying announcements on the same calendar day, this market will resolve 50-50.
A qualifying announcement by any other company does not end the race or affect resolution.
Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic and/or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.OpenAI holds a modest edge in trader sentiment for first announcing recursive self-improvement, or RSI, largely due to its early September 2026 disclosures on reaching an "automated research intern" milestone, where agents handle multi-day research tasks under supervision, alongside internal benchmarks like the RSI Index showing measurable gains in model-driven research. Chief Scientist Jakub Pachocki highlighted expectations of sustained progress into full RSI loops, positioning OpenAI ahead of peers in public framing. Anthropic reported earlier in 2026 that Claude authors over 80% of merged code and leads 26% of R&D end-to-end, plus April demonstrations of autonomous experiment design, but its recent messaging has centered on safety risks and calls for industry-wide pacing rather than capability leaps. Upcoming catalysts include further automated researcher timelines targeted for 2028 and any verified claims of closed-loop successor design.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI, or an official representative of OpenAI, announces that OpenAI has achieved recursive self-improvement before Anthropic does so. This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic, or an official representative of Anthropic, announces that Anthropic has achieved recursive self-improvement before OpenAI does so.
If neither company makes a qualifying announcement by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or if both make qualifying announcements on the same calendar day, this market will resolve 50-50.
A qualifying announcement by any other company does not end the race or affect resolution.
Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic and/or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If neither company makes a qualifying announcement by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or if both make qualifying announcements on the same calendar day, this market will resolve 50-50.
A qualifying announcement by any other company does not end the race or affect resolution.
Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic and/or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$491Data de Término
1 jan 2028Mercado Aberto
Sep 18, 2026, 12:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...OpenAI holds a modest edge in trader sentiment for first announcing recursive self-improvement, or RSI, largely due to its early September 2026 disclosures on reaching an "automated research intern" milestone, where agents handle multi-day research tasks under supervision, alongside internal benchmarks like the RSI Index showing measurable gains in model-driven research. Chief Scientist Jakub Pachocki highlighted expectations of sustained progress into full RSI loops, positioning OpenAI ahead of peers in public framing. Anthropic reported earlier in 2026 that Claude authors over 80% of merged code and leads 26% of R&D end-to-end, plus April demonstrations of autonomous experiment design, but its recent messaging has centered on safety risks and calls for industry-wide pacing rather than capability leaps. Upcoming catalysts include further automated researcher timelines targeted for 2028 and any verified claims of closed-loop successor design.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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