Taiwan's defense ministry assessments indicate that while the People's Liberation Army continues routine combat patrols, aircraft incursions, and maritime activities around the island to normalize pressure and prepare for potential blockades, it currently lacks sufficient amphibious lift, sustainment, and multi-domain superiority for a full-scale invasion. Recent Taiwanese live-fire drills incorporating attack drones and precision missiles, alongside a scheduled Trump-Xi summit, reflect efforts to strengthen deterrence and explore diplomatic channels. These factors, combined with Beijing's preference for eroding Taiwan's position through coercion short of war, align with the 88.5% implied probability against an invasion by the end of 2027.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoSim
12% chance
$3,236,740 Vol.
$3,236,740 Vol.
31 dez 2027
Ganhe 3.25%
Sim
12% chance
$3,236,740 Vol.
$3,236,740 Vol.
31 dez 2027
Ganhe 3.25%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Taiwan's defense ministry assessments indicate that while the People's Liberation Army continues routine combat patrols, aircraft incursions, and maritime activities around the island to normalize pressure and prepare for potential blockades, it currently lacks sufficient amphibious lift, sustainment, and multi-domain superiority for a full-scale invasion. Recent Taiwanese live-fire drills incorporating attack drones and precision missiles, alongside a scheduled Trump-Xi summit, reflect efforts to strengthen deterrence and explore diplomatic channels. These factors, combined with Beijing's preference for eroding Taiwan's position through coercion short of war, align with the 88.5% implied probability against an invasion by the end of 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Volume
$3,236,740Data de Término
1 jan 2028Mercado Aberto
Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Taiwan's defense ministry assessments indicate that while the People's Liberation Army continues routine combat patrols, aircraft incursions, and maritime activities around the island to normalize pressure and prepare for potential blockades, it currently lacks sufficient amphibious lift, sustainment, and multi-domain superiority for a full-scale invasion. Recent Taiwanese live-fire drills incorporating attack drones and precision missiles, alongside a scheduled Trump-Xi summit, reflect efforts to strengthen deterrence and explore diplomatic channels. These factors, combined with Beijing's preference for eroding Taiwan's position through coercion short of war, align with the 88.5% implied probability against an invasion by the end of 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$3,236,740Data de Término
1 jan 2028Mercado Aberto
Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Taiwan's defense ministry assessments indicate that while the People's Liberation Army continues routine combat patrols, aircraft incursions, and maritime activities around the island to normalize pressure and prepare for potential blockades, it currently lacks sufficient amphibious lift, sustainment, and multi-domain superiority for a full-scale invasion. Recent Taiwanese live-fire drills incorporating attack drones and precision missiles, alongside a scheduled Trump-Xi summit, reflect efforts to strengthen deterrence and explore diplomatic channels. These factors, combined with Beijing's preference for eroding Taiwan's position through coercion short of war, align with the 88.5% implied probability against an invasion by the end of 2027.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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