Ongoing People’s Liberation Army exercises around Taiwan prioritize joint blockade, quarantine, and air-sea control operations rather than immediate amphibious landings, a pattern reinforced by senior officer purges that have disrupted command structures needed for a large-scale cross-strait campaign. With only months remaining before the market resolves, traders price the near-term risk of full invasion at just 3.8 percent, reflecting sustained U.S.-China diplomatic engagement and Beijing’s emphasis on coercive gray-zone tactics. Late-breaking shifts remain possible through sudden escalation of existing patrols, external geopolitical shocks, or rapid changes in Taiwanese or U.S. posture, though current evidence points to continued pressure short of kinetic conflict.