Congress has a decades-long record of raising or suspending the debt ceiling nearly 80 times since 1960, including a $5 trillion increase in July 2025 that set the current $41.1 trillion limit. Credit rating agencies maintain stable outlooks, citing expectations of timely bipartisan action to avoid market disruption and higher borrowing costs. The next limit breach is projected for late 2026 or 2027, after which Treasury extraordinary measures typically provide several additional months before any payment risk. Traders assign 97% probability to no default by 2027 because repeated past resolutions and shared incentives to protect Treasury market functioning and economic stability outweigh brinkmanship risks. Even so, an unprecedented prolonged impasse or major fiscal shock could still shift outcomes before the 2027 horizon.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoOs EUA não pagam a dívida até 2027?
Os EUA não pagam a dívida até 2027?
Sim
3% chance
$18,051 Vol.
$18,051 Vol.
30 dez 2026
Sim
3% chance
$18,051 Vol.
$18,051 Vol.
30 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Congress has a decades-long record of raising or suspending the debt ceiling nearly 80 times since 1960, including a $5 trillion increase in July 2025 that set the current $41.1 trillion limit. Credit rating agencies maintain stable outlooks, citing expectations of timely bipartisan action to avoid market disruption and higher borrowing costs. The next limit breach is projected for late 2026 or 2027, after which Treasury extraordinary measures typically provide several additional months before any payment risk. Traders assign 97% probability to no default by 2027 because repeated past resolutions and shared incentives to protect Treasury market functioning and economic stability outweigh brinkmanship risks. Even so, an unprecedented prolonged impasse or major fiscal shock could still shift outcomes before the 2027 horizon.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Mercado Aberto: Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ET
Volume
$18,051Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Congress has a decades-long record of raising or suspending the debt ceiling nearly 80 times since 1960, including a $5 trillion increase in July 2025 that set the current $41.1 trillion limit. Credit rating agencies maintain stable outlooks, citing expectations of timely bipartisan action to avoid market disruption and higher borrowing costs. The next limit breach is projected for late 2026 or 2027, after which Treasury extraordinary measures typically provide several additional months before any payment risk. Traders assign 97% probability to no default by 2027 because repeated past resolutions and shared incentives to protect Treasury market functioning and economic stability outweigh brinkmanship risks. Even so, an unprecedented prolonged impasse or major fiscal shock could still shift outcomes before the 2027 horizon.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Volume
$18,051Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Congress has a decades-long record of raising or suspending the debt ceiling nearly 80 times since 1960, including a $5 trillion increase in July 2025 that set the current $41.1 trillion limit. Credit rating agencies maintain stable outlooks, citing expectations of timely bipartisan action to avoid market disruption and higher borrowing costs. The next limit breach is projected for late 2026 or 2027, after which Treasury extraordinary measures typically provide several additional months before any payment risk. Traders assign 97% probability to no default by 2027 because repeated past resolutions and shared incentives to protect Treasury market functioning and economic stability outweigh brinkmanship risks. Even so, an unprecedented prolonged impasse or major fiscal shock could still shift outcomes before the 2027 horizon.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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