Recent polling averages place the Parti Québécois ahead at roughly 29 percent, with the incumbent Coalition Avenir Québec at 23-24 percent, the Quebec Liberal Party near 21 percent, and smaller shares for the Conservatives and Québec solidaire. This positioning, combined with voter surveys showing 60 percent favoring a change in government, underpins trader expectations of a PQ plurality on October 5. Seat models from recent aggregates assign the PQ an 80 percent or higher probability of winning the most ridings under the first-past-the-post system across the expanded 127-seat map, though a majority remains unlikely. The CAQ’s modest rebound under new leader Christine Fréchette has narrowed gaps in some regions without reversing the broader trend. Scheduled debates and ongoing economic concerns tied to U.S. trade tensions remain key variables ahead of election day.