Incumbent Democratic Representative Val Hoyle secured her party's nomination in the May 19, 2026, primary with roughly 75 percent of the vote against limited opposition, positioning her for a rematch with Republican nominee Monique DeSpain, who won her primary by a similar margin. The district's D+6 Partisan Voter Index and consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles underpin analyst ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball classifying the seat as solid or safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. Hoyle's established fundraising advantage and the absence of major polling shifts or late-breaking developments since the primaries have reinforced trader consensus around the Democratic outcome. A Republican victory would require an unusually strong national tailwind or significant local disruption to overcome the district's structural lean and incumbency edge.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoOR-04 Vencedor da eleição da casa
OR-04 Vencedor da eleição da casa
$21,730 Vol.
$21,730 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Val Hoyle (D)
94%
Monique DeSpain (R)
6%
$21,730 Vol.
$21,730 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Val Hoyle (D)
$14,759 Vol.
94%
Monique DeSpain (R)
$6,972 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democratic Representative Val Hoyle secured her party's nomination in the May 19, 2026, primary with roughly 75 percent of the vote against limited opposition, positioning her for a rematch with Republican nominee Monique DeSpain, who won her primary by a similar margin. The district's D+6 Partisan Voter Index and consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles underpin analyst ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball classifying the seat as solid or safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. Hoyle's established fundraising advantage and the absence of major polling shifts or late-breaking developments since the primaries have reinforced trader consensus around the Democratic outcome. A Republican victory would require an unusually strong national tailwind or significant local disruption to overcome the district's structural lean and incumbency edge.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$21,730Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democratic Representative Val Hoyle secured her party's nomination in the May 19, 2026, primary with roughly 75 percent of the vote against limited opposition, positioning her for a rematch with Republican nominee Monique DeSpain, who won her primary by a similar margin. The district's D+6 Partisan Voter Index and consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles underpin analyst ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball classifying the seat as solid or safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. Hoyle's established fundraising advantage and the absence of major polling shifts or late-breaking developments since the primaries have reinforced trader consensus around the Democratic outcome. A Republican victory would require an unusually strong national tailwind or significant local disruption to overcome the district's structural lean and incumbency edge.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$21,730Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democratic Representative Val Hoyle secured her party's nomination in the May 19, 2026, primary with roughly 75 percent of the vote against limited opposition, positioning her for a rematch with Republican nominee Monique DeSpain, who won her primary by a similar margin. The district's D+6 Partisan Voter Index and consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles underpin analyst ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball classifying the seat as solid or safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. Hoyle's established fundraising advantage and the absence of major polling shifts or late-breaking developments since the primaries have reinforced trader consensus around the Democratic outcome. A Republican victory would require an unusually strong national tailwind or significant local disruption to overcome the district's structural lean and incumbency edge.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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