Incumbent Democrat Pat Ryan maintains a commanding lead in New York’s 18th congressional district heading into the November 3 general election, reflecting the seat’s solid Democratic rating from forecasters, his incumbency advantage, and a wide fundraising gap that has left Republican challenger Jacqueline Auringer with limited resources. The mid-Hudson Valley district carries a modest Democratic lean and has favored Ryan in prior cycles despite a narrow 2024 presidential result. Auringer, a businesswoman advancing unopposed after the June primaries, has secured local Republican endorsements and highlighted issues such as affordability and immigration enforcement, yet polling and structural factors continue to favor the sitting representative. Trader consensus at these levels accounts for the low probability of a late reversal absent major unforeseen developments like a national shift or candidate-specific event before Election Day.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado$42,918 Vol.
$42,918 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Pat Ryan (D)
93%
Jacqueline Auringer (R)
7%
$42,918 Vol.
$42,918 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Pat Ryan (D)
$33,541 Vol.
93%
Jacqueline Auringer (R)
$9,377 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Pat Ryan maintains a commanding lead in New York’s 18th congressional district heading into the November 3 general election, reflecting the seat’s solid Democratic rating from forecasters, his incumbency advantage, and a wide fundraising gap that has left Republican challenger Jacqueline Auringer with limited resources. The mid-Hudson Valley district carries a modest Democratic lean and has favored Ryan in prior cycles despite a narrow 2024 presidential result. Auringer, a businesswoman advancing unopposed after the June primaries, has secured local Republican endorsements and highlighted issues such as affordability and immigration enforcement, yet polling and structural factors continue to favor the sitting representative. Trader consensus at these levels accounts for the low probability of a late reversal absent major unforeseen developments like a national shift or candidate-specific event before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ET
Volume
$42,918Data de Término
4 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Pat Ryan maintains a commanding lead in New York’s 18th congressional district heading into the November 3 general election, reflecting the seat’s solid Democratic rating from forecasters, his incumbency advantage, and a wide fundraising gap that has left Republican challenger Jacqueline Auringer with limited resources. The mid-Hudson Valley district carries a modest Democratic lean and has favored Ryan in prior cycles despite a narrow 2024 presidential result. Auringer, a businesswoman advancing unopposed after the June primaries, has secured local Republican endorsements and highlighted issues such as affordability and immigration enforcement, yet polling and structural factors continue to favor the sitting representative. Trader consensus at these levels accounts for the low probability of a late reversal absent major unforeseen developments like a national shift or candidate-specific event before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$42,918Data de Término
4 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Pat Ryan maintains a commanding lead in New York’s 18th congressional district heading into the November 3 general election, reflecting the seat’s solid Democratic rating from forecasters, his incumbency advantage, and a wide fundraising gap that has left Republican challenger Jacqueline Auringer with limited resources. The mid-Hudson Valley district carries a modest Democratic lean and has favored Ryan in prior cycles despite a narrow 2024 presidential result. Auringer, a businesswoman advancing unopposed after the June primaries, has secured local Republican endorsements and highlighted issues such as affordability and immigration enforcement, yet polling and structural factors continue to favor the sitting representative. Trader consensus at these levels accounts for the low probability of a late reversal absent major unforeseen developments like a national shift or candidate-specific event before Election Day.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions