Josh Gottheimer’s position as the heavy favorite in New Jersey’s 5th congressional district stems from his incumbency advantage, consistent solid-to-safe Democratic ratings from forecasters including the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and a large fundraising edge exceeding $4.7 million compared with challenger Sean Kirrane’s under $60,000. Both candidates advanced unopposed in the June 2026 primaries, leaving little disruption to the status quo in a district covering parts of Bergen, Passaic, and Sussex counties. Trader consensus at 96.9% for Gottheimer reflects these structural factors and the absence of recent polling shifts or major campaign events. A significant late scandal, unexpected national political realignment, or unusually high Republican turnout could narrow the margin, though such developments remain low-probability given current conditions ahead of the November 3 general election.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado$26,211 Vol.
$26,211 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Josh Gottheimer (D)
97%
Sean Kirrane (R)
3%
$26,211 Vol.
$26,211 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Josh Gottheimer (D)
$19,054 Vol.
97%
Sean Kirrane (R)
$7,158 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Josh Gottheimer’s position as the heavy favorite in New Jersey’s 5th congressional district stems from his incumbency advantage, consistent solid-to-safe Democratic ratings from forecasters including the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and a large fundraising edge exceeding $4.7 million compared with challenger Sean Kirrane’s under $60,000. Both candidates advanced unopposed in the June 2026 primaries, leaving little disruption to the status quo in a district covering parts of Bergen, Passaic, and Sussex counties. Trader consensus at 96.9% for Gottheimer reflects these structural factors and the absence of recent polling shifts or major campaign events. A significant late scandal, unexpected national political realignment, or unusually high Republican turnout could narrow the margin, though such developments remain low-probability given current conditions ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ET
Volume
$26,211Data de Término
4 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Josh Gottheimer’s position as the heavy favorite in New Jersey’s 5th congressional district stems from his incumbency advantage, consistent solid-to-safe Democratic ratings from forecasters including the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and a large fundraising edge exceeding $4.7 million compared with challenger Sean Kirrane’s under $60,000. Both candidates advanced unopposed in the June 2026 primaries, leaving little disruption to the status quo in a district covering parts of Bergen, Passaic, and Sussex counties. Trader consensus at 96.9% for Gottheimer reflects these structural factors and the absence of recent polling shifts or major campaign events. A significant late scandal, unexpected national political realignment, or unusually high Republican turnout could narrow the margin, though such developments remain low-probability given current conditions ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$26,211Data de Término
4 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Josh Gottheimer’s position as the heavy favorite in New Jersey’s 5th congressional district stems from his incumbency advantage, consistent solid-to-safe Democratic ratings from forecasters including the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and a large fundraising edge exceeding $4.7 million compared with challenger Sean Kirrane’s under $60,000. Both candidates advanced unopposed in the June 2026 primaries, leaving little disruption to the status quo in a district covering parts of Bergen, Passaic, and Sussex counties. Trader consensus at 96.9% for Gottheimer reflects these structural factors and the absence of recent polling shifts or major campaign events. A significant late scandal, unexpected national political realignment, or unusually high Republican turnout could narrow the margin, though such developments remain low-probability given current conditions ahead of the November 3 general election.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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