**Trader consensus heavily favors 56-57°F as the lowest temperature in San Francisco on September 20, 2026, at 51% implied probability, followed by 51°F or below at 36%.** This positioning stems from the city's persistent marine layer and onshore westerly flow, which typically moderates overnight lows into the upper 50s during mid-September. Official forecasts from the National Weather Service and NOAA models showed highs in the low-to-mid 60s with lows stabilizing near 57-58°F under mostly cloudy conditions and light winds, consistent with the 1991-2020 climatological average low of 55.8°F. No strong offshore flow, heatwave, or anomalous cold advection developed to push readings significantly lower or higher. Recent model runs reinforced this narrow range, with minimal spread among guidance, leading markets to price the 56-57°F bin as the resolution favorite while assigning residual probability to cooler outcomes if fog and stratus deepened overnight.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais baixa em São Francisco no dia 20 de setembro?
Temperatura mais baixa em São Francisco no dia 20 de setembro?
56-57°F 96%
51°F ou menos 57%
52-53°F 2%
54-55°F 2%
$5,857 Vol.
$5,857 Vol.
20 set 2026
51°F ou menos
57%
52-53°F
2%
54-55°F
2%
56-57°F
92%
58-59°F
<1%
60-61°F
<1%
62-63°F
<1%
64-65°F
<1%
66-67°F
<1%
20°C a 20,5°C
<1%
70°F ou mais
<1%
56-57°F 96%
51°F ou menos 57%
52-53°F 2%
54-55°F 2%
$5,857 Vol.
$5,857 Vol.
20 set 2026
51°F ou menos
$0 Vol.
57%
52-53°F
$5 Vol.
2%
54-55°F
$5 Vol.
2%
56-57°F
$126 Vol.
92%
58-59°F
$4,275 Vol.
<1%
60-61°F
$1,299 Vol.
<1%
62-63°F
$37 Vol.
<1%
64-65°F
$31 Vol.
<1%
66-67°F
$31 Vol.
<1%
20°C a 20,5°C
$31 Vol.
<1%
70°F ou mais
$16 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus heavily favors 56-57°F as the lowest temperature in San Francisco on September 20, 2026, at 51% implied probability, followed by 51°F or below at 36%.** This positioning stems from the city's persistent marine layer and onshore westerly flow, which typically moderates overnight lows into the upper 50s during mid-September. Official forecasts from the National Weather Service and NOAA models showed highs in the low-to-mid 60s with lows stabilizing near 57-58°F under mostly cloudy conditions and light winds, consistent with the 1991-2020 climatological average low of 55.8°F. No strong offshore flow, heatwave, or anomalous cold advection developed to push readings significantly lower or higher. Recent model runs reinforced this narrow range, with minimal spread among guidance, leading markets to price the 56-57°F bin as the resolution favorite while assigning residual probability to cooler outcomes if fog and stratus deepened overnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Sep 18, 2026, 7:29 AM ET
Volume
$5,857Data de Término
20 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 18, 2026, 7:29 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus heavily favors 56-57°F as the lowest temperature in San Francisco on September 20, 2026, at 51% implied probability, followed by 51°F or below at 36%.** This positioning stems from the city's persistent marine layer and onshore westerly flow, which typically moderates overnight lows into the upper 50s during mid-September. Official forecasts from the National Weather Service and NOAA models showed highs in the low-to-mid 60s with lows stabilizing near 57-58°F under mostly cloudy conditions and light winds, consistent with the 1991-2020 climatological average low of 55.8°F. No strong offshore flow, heatwave, or anomalous cold advection developed to push readings significantly lower or higher. Recent model runs reinforced this narrow range, with minimal spread among guidance, leading markets to price the 56-57°F bin as the resolution favorite while assigning residual probability to cooler outcomes if fog and stratus deepened overnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$5,857Data de Término
20 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 18, 2026, 7:29 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus heavily favors 56-57°F as the lowest temperature in San Francisco on September 20, 2026, at 51% implied probability, followed by 51°F or below at 36%.** This positioning stems from the city's persistent marine layer and onshore westerly flow, which typically moderates overnight lows into the upper 50s during mid-September. Official forecasts from the National Weather Service and NOAA models showed highs in the low-to-mid 60s with lows stabilizing near 57-58°F under mostly cloudy conditions and light winds, consistent with the 1991-2020 climatological average low of 55.8°F. No strong offshore flow, heatwave, or anomalous cold advection developed to push readings significantly lower or higher. Recent model runs reinforced this narrow range, with minimal spread among guidance, leading markets to price the 56-57°F bin as the resolution favorite while assigning residual probability to cooler outcomes if fog and stratus deepened overnight.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions