**Rafael López Aliaga leads the Lima mayoral market at 74.2% implied probability as the Renovación Popular candidate for first regidor, positioned to assume the mayoralty if his party’s list prevails on October 4, 2026.** Recent September 2026 polling shows him at 33–39% support, well ahead of Carlos Bruce (Somos Perú), Francis Allison (Avanza País), Daniel Urresti (Podemos Perú), and others in single digits or lower. The JNE’s early-September confirmation of his candidacy—after rejecting a challenge alleging an indirect reelection attempt—removed a key legal hurdle and stabilized his frontrunner status. López Aliaga’s prior mayoral record, party infrastructure, and name recognition in a fragmented field of over 20 candidates underpin the wide gap. Lower-priced contenders trail due to weaker polling trends and limited momentum in the final weeks before the vote. Traders appear to price in continuity for the leading list absent major late shifts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoRafael López Aliaga 74.3%
Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca 7%
Francis James Allison Oyague 6%
Daniel Belizario Urresti Elera 3.1%
$130,324 Vol.
$130,324 Vol.
Rafael López Aliaga
74%
Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca
7%
Francis James Allison Oyague
6%
Daniel Belizario Urresti Elera
3%
Ricardo Pablo Belmont Cassinelli
1%
Susel Ana María Paredes Piqué
1%
Luis Isael Rubio Idrogo
1%
Samuel Marcos Daza Taype
1%
Rubén José Ramírez Mateo
<1%
Carlos Alberto Tejada Noriega
<1%
Edgardo Renán De Pomar Vizcarra
<1%
Jessica Viviana Linares Romero
<1%
Yehude Simón Munaro
<1%
Santiago Rosendo Abarca León
<1%
Luis Alberto Huette Tolentino
<1%
Sandro Caller Gutiérrez
<1%
Elizabeth María del Rosario León Chinchay
<1%
Victoria Betzabé La Cruz Garcés
<1%
Flor de María Hurtado Valdez
<1%
Oswaldo Hernán Vargas Cuéllar
<1%
Rubén Daniel Bonilla Espinoza
<1%
Segundo Valdez Zavala
<1%
Samir Frank Quispe Caballero
<1%
Rafael López Aliaga 74.3%
Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca 7%
Francis James Allison Oyague 6%
Daniel Belizario Urresti Elera 3.1%
$130,324 Vol.
$130,324 Vol.
Rafael López Aliaga
74%
Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca
7%
Francis James Allison Oyague
6%
Daniel Belizario Urresti Elera
3%
Ricardo Pablo Belmont Cassinelli
1%
Susel Ana María Paredes Piqué
1%
Luis Isael Rubio Idrogo
1%
Samuel Marcos Daza Taype
1%
Rubén José Ramírez Mateo
<1%
Carlos Alberto Tejada Noriega
<1%
Edgardo Renán De Pomar Vizcarra
<1%
Jessica Viviana Linares Romero
<1%
Yehude Simón Munaro
<1%
Santiago Rosendo Abarca León
<1%
Luis Alberto Huette Tolentino
<1%
Sandro Caller Gutiérrez
<1%
Elizabeth María del Rosario León Chinchay
<1%
Victoria Betzabé La Cruz Garcés
<1%
Flor de María Hurtado Valdez
<1%
Oswaldo Hernán Vargas Cuéllar
<1%
Rubén Daniel Bonilla Espinoza
<1%
Segundo Valdez Zavala
<1%
Samir Frank Quispe Caballero
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Lima as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the Peruvian government, including the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE, https://jne.gob.pe) and the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE, https://www.onpe.gob.pe/).
Mercado Aberto: Jul 24, 2026, 11:54 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Lima as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the Peruvian government, including the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE, https://jne.gob.pe) and the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE, https://www.onpe.gob.pe/).
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...**Rafael López Aliaga leads the Lima mayoral market at 74.2% implied probability as the Renovación Popular candidate for first regidor, positioned to assume the mayoralty if his party’s list prevails on October 4, 2026.** Recent September 2026 polling shows him at 33–39% support, well ahead of Carlos Bruce (Somos Perú), Francis Allison (Avanza País), Daniel Urresti (Podemos Perú), and others in single digits or lower. The JNE’s early-September confirmation of his candidacy—after rejecting a challenge alleging an indirect reelection attempt—removed a key legal hurdle and stabilized his frontrunner status. López Aliaga’s prior mayoral record, party infrastructure, and name recognition in a fragmented field of over 20 candidates underpin the wide gap. Lower-priced contenders trail due to weaker polling trends and limited momentum in the final weeks before the vote. Traders appear to price in continuity for the leading list absent major late shifts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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