The 10-year Treasury yield has recently traded near 5%, up sharply from roughly 4.06% a year earlier, reflecting resilient U.S. growth, a hawkish Federal Reserve stance under Chair Kevin Warsh, and elevated term premiums amid inflation uncertainty. Heavy fiscal deficits, record Treasury issuance, and AI-driven corporate borrowing have increased long-duration supply while competing for investor capital, supporting higher real yields. Geopolitical tensions linked to energy prices have further influenced breakeven inflation. Market-implied odds now embed limited near-term easing, with the Fed funds rate path versus official guidance remaining a key swing factor. Upcoming CPI releases, employment data, and FOMC communications through year-end will shape whether yields can sustainably decline before 2027 or remain range-bound near current levels.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado$286,092 Vol.
30 dez 2026
Abaixo de 3,9%
3%
Abaixo de 3,8%
3%
Abaixo de 3,7%
3%
Abaixo de 3,6%
3%
Abaixo de 3,5%
2%
Abaixo de 3,0%
1%
Abaixo de 2,0%
2%
Abaixo de 1,0%
1%
$286,092 Vol.
Abaixo de 3,9%
$54,748 Vol.
3%
Abaixo de 3,8%
$62,740 Vol.
3%
Abaixo de 3,7%
$35,630 Vol.
3%
Abaixo de 3,6%
$8,903 Vol.
3%
Abaixo de 3,5%
$43,095 Vol.
2%
Abaixo de 3,0%
$7,958 Vol.
1%
Abaixo de 2,0%
$564 Vol.
2%
Abaixo de 1,0%
$40,696 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The 10-year Treasury yield has recently traded near 5%, up sharply from roughly 4.06% a year earlier, reflecting resilient U.S. growth, a hawkish Federal Reserve stance under Chair Kevin Warsh, and elevated term premiums amid inflation uncertainty. Heavy fiscal deficits, record Treasury issuance, and AI-driven corporate borrowing have increased long-duration supply while competing for investor capital, supporting higher real yields. Geopolitical tensions linked to energy prices have further influenced breakeven inflation. Market-implied odds now embed limited near-term easing, with the Fed funds rate path versus official guidance remaining a key swing factor. Upcoming CPI releases, employment data, and FOMC communications through year-end will shape whether yields can sustainably decline before 2027 or remain range-bound near current levels.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Mercado Aberto: Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ET
Volume
$286,092Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The 10-year Treasury yield has recently traded near 5%, up sharply from roughly 4.06% a year earlier, reflecting resilient U.S. growth, a hawkish Federal Reserve stance under Chair Kevin Warsh, and elevated term premiums amid inflation uncertainty. Heavy fiscal deficits, record Treasury issuance, and AI-driven corporate borrowing have increased long-duration supply while competing for investor capital, supporting higher real yields. Geopolitical tensions linked to energy prices have further influenced breakeven inflation. Market-implied odds now embed limited near-term easing, with the Fed funds rate path versus official guidance remaining a key swing factor. Upcoming CPI releases, employment data, and FOMC communications through year-end will shape whether yields can sustainably decline before 2027 or remain range-bound near current levels.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Volume
$286,092Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 10-year Treasury yield has recently traded near 5%, up sharply from roughly 4.06% a year earlier, reflecting resilient U.S. growth, a hawkish Federal Reserve stance under Chair Kevin Warsh, and elevated term premiums amid inflation uncertainty. Heavy fiscal deficits, record Treasury issuance, and AI-driven corporate borrowing have increased long-duration supply while competing for investor capital, supporting higher real yields. Geopolitical tensions linked to energy prices have further influenced breakeven inflation. Market-implied odds now embed limited near-term easing, with the Fed funds rate path versus official guidance remaining a key swing factor. Upcoming CPI releases, employment data, and FOMC communications through year-end will shape whether yields can sustainably decline before 2027 or remain range-bound near current levels.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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