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icon for Quão baixo será o rendimento do Tesouro a 10 anos antes de 2027?
Economia·Negócios

Quão baixo será o rendimento do Tesouro a 10 anos antes de 2027?

icon for Quão baixo será o rendimento do Tesouro a 10 anos antes de 2027?
Economia·Negócios

Quão baixo será o rendimento do Tesouro a 10 anos antes de 2027?

$286,092 Vol.

30 dez 2026
Polymarket

$286,092 Vol.

Polymarket

Abaixo de 3,9%

$54,748 Vol.

3%

Abaixo de 3,8%

$62,740 Vol.

3%

Abaixo de 3,7%

$35,630 Vol.

3%

Abaixo de 3,6%

$8,903 Vol.

3%

Abaixo de 3,5%

$43,095 Vol.

2%

Abaixo de 3,0%

$7,958 Vol.

1%

Abaixo de 2,0%

$564 Vol.

2%

Abaixo de 1,0%

$40,696 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time. The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).Recent hawkish Federal Reserve actions, including the September 16, 2026, 25-basis-point rate hike to a 3.75-4.00% federal funds target range under Chair Kevin Warsh, have anchored 10-year Treasury yields near 5.00% as of September 18. Elevated inflation readings—August CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year, with core at 2.4%—combined with upgraded FOMC projections for the policy rate at 4.1% through 2027, have reinforced expectations of limited near-term easing. Resilient U.S. growth, AI-related capital spending, geopolitical supply risks, and a rising term premium have driven yields higher through 2026, narrowing the window for declines below recent lows near 4.6-4.8% before year-end. Key upcoming catalysts include October CPI and employment data plus the next FOMC meeting.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time. The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Volume
$286,092
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time. The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).Recent hawkish Federal Reserve actions, including the September 16, 2026, 25-basis-point rate hike to a 3.75-4.00% federal funds target range under Chair Kevin Warsh, have anchored 10-year Treasury yields near 5.00% as of September 18. Elevated inflation readings—August CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year, with core at 2.4%—combined with upgraded FOMC projections for the policy rate at 4.1% through 2027, have reinforced expectations of limited near-term easing. Resilient U.S. growth, AI-related capital spending, geopolitical supply risks, and a rising term premium have driven yields higher through 2026, narrowing the window for declines below recent lows near 4.6-4.8% before year-end. Key upcoming catalysts include October CPI and employment data plus the next FOMC meeting.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time. The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Volume
$286,092
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Quão baixo será o rendimento do Tesouro a 10 anos antes de 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Abaixo de 4,0%" at 100%, followed by "Abaixo de 3,9%" at 3%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Quão baixo será o rendimento do Tesouro a 10 anos antes de 2027?" has generated $286.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 12, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Quão baixo será o rendimento do Tesouro a 10 anos antes de 2027?," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Quão baixo será o rendimento do Tesouro a 10 anos antes de 2027?" is "Abaixo de 4,0%" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Abaixo de 3,9%" at 3%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Quão baixo será o rendimento do Tesouro a 10 anos antes de 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.