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icon for Vencedor da eleição para a Assembleia Nacional de Groulx Quebec
Mundo·Canadá

Vencedor da eleição para a Assembleia Nacional de Groulx Quebec

icon for Vencedor da eleição para a Assembleia Nacional de Groulx Quebec
Mundo·Canadá

Vencedor da eleição para a Assembleia Nacional de Groulx Quebec

Eric Girard 74%

Marie-Claude Sarrazin 24%

Marie-Noëlle Aubertin <1%

Julie Tourangeau <1%

Polymarket
NOVO

Eric Girard 74%

Marie-Claude Sarrazin 24%

Marie-Noëlle Aubertin <1%

Julie Tourangeau <1%

Polymarket
NOVO
icon for Eric Girard

Eric Girard

$1,986 Vol.

74%

icon for Marie-Claude Sarrazin

Marie-Claude Sarrazin

$1,139 Vol.

24%

icon for Marie-Noëlle Aubertin

Marie-Noëlle Aubertin

$282 Vol.

<1%

icon for Julie Tourangeau

Julie Tourangeau

$276 Vol.

<1%

Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Groulx Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).**Eric Girard, the incumbent Coalition Avenir Québec MNA and Quebec Minister of Finance, holds a strong lead in the Groulx riding ahead of the October 5, 2026, provincial election.** He has represented the suburban Montreal-area district since 2018, securing re-election in 2022 with 47.75% of the vote and a substantial margin over Québec solidaire. Recent projections from sources like 338Canada assign him roughly 70% odds of victory, consistent with the riding's recent CAQ performance and the party's established base there. The main challenger is Parti Québécois candidate Marie-Claude Sarrazin, a longtime PQ activist and former prosecutor recruited in August 2026, who trails significantly in available assessments. Other declared candidates—including Québec solidaire's Marie-Noëlle Aubertin, the Liberal nominee, and the Conservative contender—register minimal support in current market pricing. No major late developments, such as candidate withdrawals or riding-specific controversies, have altered the positioning in the past month. Traders appear to price in Girard's incumbency advantage, ministerial profile, and the riding's voting patterns from the prior two cycles. The outcome remains subject to broader provincial trends and final voter turnout.

Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Groulx Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter.

If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Groulx Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).
Volume
$3,683
Data de Término
5 out 2026
Mercado Aberto
Aug 31, 2026, 3:47 PM ET

Fonte de resolução

https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Groulx Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).**Eric Girard, the incumbent Coalition Avenir Québec MNA and Quebec Minister of Finance, holds a strong lead in the Groulx riding ahead of the October 5, 2026, provincial election.** He has represented the suburban Montreal-area district since 2018, securing re-election in 2022 with 47.75% of the vote and a substantial margin over Québec solidaire. Recent projections from sources like 338Canada assign him roughly 70% odds of victory, consistent with the riding's recent CAQ performance and the party's established base there. The main challenger is Parti Québécois candidate Marie-Claude Sarrazin, a longtime PQ activist and former prosecutor recruited in August 2026, who trails significantly in available assessments. Other declared candidates—including Québec solidaire's Marie-Noëlle Aubertin, the Liberal nominee, and the Conservative contender—register minimal support in current market pricing. No major late developments, such as candidate withdrawals or riding-specific controversies, have altered the positioning in the past month. Traders appear to price in Girard's incumbency advantage, ministerial profile, and the riding's voting patterns from the prior two cycles. The outcome remains subject to broader provincial trends and final voter turnout.

Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Groulx Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter.

If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Groulx Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).
Volume
$3,683
Data de Término
5 out 2026
Mercado Aberto
Aug 31, 2026, 3:47 PM ET

Fonte de resolução

https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Vencedor da eleição para a Assembleia Nacional de Groulx Quebec" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Eric Girard" at 74%, followed by "Marie-Claude Sarrazin" at 24%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 74¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 74% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Vencedor da eleição para a Assembleia Nacional de Groulx Quebec" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 31, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Vencedor da eleição para a Assembleia Nacional de Groulx Quebec," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Vencedor da eleição para a Assembleia Nacional de Groulx Quebec" is "Eric Girard" at 74%, meaning the market assigns a 74% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Marie-Claude Sarrazin" at 24%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Vencedor da eleição para a Assembleia Nacional de Groulx Quebec" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.