Trump’s recent public affirmation of confidence in his May 2026 appointee, Kevin Warsh, as Federal Reserve Chair underpins the 98.7% market-implied probability against any firing attempt through year-end. Following the FOMC’s unanimous 25-basis-point rate hike to the 3.75–4.00% target range on September 16—defying administration calls for lower borrowing costs—Trump attributed the decision to a “hostile” board while stating he is “relying on Kevin” and wants the chair to act independently. The Supreme Court’s earlier ruling blocking removal of Governor Lisa Cook without cause further constrains presidential authority over the central bank. Tail risks remain limited to sustained policy divergence that materially widens gaps on Treasury yields or inflation, though no such escalation has materialized in recent data or communications.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado1% chance
$30,017 Vol.
$30,017 Vol.
31 dez 2026
1% chance
$30,017 Vol.
$30,017 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trump’s recent public affirmation of confidence in his May 2026 appointee, Kevin Warsh, as Federal Reserve Chair underpins the 98.7% market-implied probability against any firing attempt through year-end. Following the FOMC’s unanimous 25-basis-point rate hike to the 3.75–4.00% target range on September 16—defying administration calls for lower borrowing costs—Trump attributed the decision to a “hostile” board while stating he is “relying on Kevin” and wants the chair to act independently. The Supreme Court’s earlier ruling blocking removal of Governor Lisa Cook without cause further constrains presidential authority over the central bank. Tail risks remain limited to sustained policy divergence that materially widens gaps on Treasury yields or inflation, though no such escalation has materialized in recent data or communications.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 24, 2026, 11:56 AM ET
Volume
$30,017Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Jul 24, 2026, 11:56 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trump’s recent public affirmation of confidence in his May 2026 appointee, Kevin Warsh, as Federal Reserve Chair underpins the 98.7% market-implied probability against any firing attempt through year-end. Following the FOMC’s unanimous 25-basis-point rate hike to the 3.75–4.00% target range on September 16—defying administration calls for lower borrowing costs—Trump attributed the decision to a “hostile” board while stating he is “relying on Kevin” and wants the chair to act independently. The Supreme Court’s earlier ruling blocking removal of Governor Lisa Cook without cause further constrains presidential authority over the central bank. Tail risks remain limited to sustained policy divergence that materially widens gaps on Treasury yields or inflation, though no such escalation has materialized in recent data or communications.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$30,017Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Jul 24, 2026, 11:56 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trump’s recent public affirmation of confidence in his May 2026 appointee, Kevin Warsh, as Federal Reserve Chair underpins the 98.7% market-implied probability against any firing attempt through year-end. Following the FOMC’s unanimous 25-basis-point rate hike to the 3.75–4.00% target range on September 16—defying administration calls for lower borrowing costs—Trump attributed the decision to a “hostile” board while stating he is “relying on Kevin” and wants the chair to act independently. The Supreme Court’s earlier ruling blocking removal of Governor Lisa Cook without cause further constrains presidential authority over the central bank. Tail risks remain limited to sustained policy divergence that materially widens gaps on Treasury yields or inflation, though no such escalation has materialized in recent data or communications.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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