The near-certain trader consensus that President Trump will remain in office through September 30 stems from the absence of any active impeachment proceedings, resignation signals, or qualifying health events capable of triggering the 25th Amendment or presidential succession within the narrow nine-day window. Fixed constitutional term rules and Senate supermajority thresholds for removal create structural barriers that have not been met, while no recent legislative votes, court rulings, or official announcements have altered this baseline. Late-breaking developments such as a sudden medical emergency, major scandal prompting resignation, or unforeseen diplomatic crisis could theoretically shift outcomes, though such scenarios remain highly improbable given the compressed timeline and current institutional stability.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoSim
<1% chance
$1,344,519 Vol.
$1,344,519 Vol.
30 set 2026
Sim
<1% chance
$1,344,519 Vol.
$1,344,519 Vol.
30 set 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The near-certain trader consensus that President Trump will remain in office through September 30 stems from the absence of any active impeachment proceedings, resignation signals, or qualifying health events capable of triggering the 25th Amendment or presidential succession within the narrow nine-day window. Fixed constitutional term rules and Senate supermajority thresholds for removal create structural barriers that have not been met, while no recent legislative votes, court rulings, or official announcements have altered this baseline. Late-breaking developments such as a sudden medical emergency, major scandal prompting resignation, or unforeseen diplomatic crisis could theoretically shift outcomes, though such scenarios remain highly improbable given the compressed timeline and current institutional stability.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Sep 2, 2026, 5:12 PM ET
Volume
$1,344,519Data de Término
1 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 2, 2026, 5:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The near-certain trader consensus that President Trump will remain in office through September 30 stems from the absence of any active impeachment proceedings, resignation signals, or qualifying health events capable of triggering the 25th Amendment or presidential succession within the narrow nine-day window. Fixed constitutional term rules and Senate supermajority thresholds for removal create structural barriers that have not been met, while no recent legislative votes, court rulings, or official announcements have altered this baseline. Late-breaking developments such as a sudden medical emergency, major scandal prompting resignation, or unforeseen diplomatic crisis could theoretically shift outcomes, though such scenarios remain highly improbable given the compressed timeline and current institutional stability.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,344,519Data de Término
1 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 2, 2026, 5:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The near-certain trader consensus that President Trump will remain in office through September 30 stems from the absence of any active impeachment proceedings, resignation signals, or qualifying health events capable of triggering the 25th Amendment or presidential succession within the narrow nine-day window. Fixed constitutional term rules and Senate supermajority thresholds for removal create structural barriers that have not been met, while no recent legislative votes, court rulings, or official announcements have altered this baseline. Late-breaking developments such as a sudden medical emergency, major scandal prompting resignation, or unforeseen diplomatic crisis could theoretically shift outcomes, though such scenarios remain highly improbable given the compressed timeline and current institutional stability.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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