Traders assign a 97% implied probability against Trump’s removal via the 25th Amendment before 2027 because the process requires the vice president and a majority of the cabinet to declare incapacity, followed by a two-thirds congressional vote to sustain it—steps that have never succeeded against a sitting president. With no verified reports of health-related incapacity or cabinet-level challenges emerging in the first 20 months of the term, the market reflects broad consensus that political and institutional barriers remain intact. Late-breaking developments such as a documented medical emergency, sudden erosion of cabinet loyalty, or an unforeseen congressional realignment could still shift odds, though such triggers remain outside current evidence.