The requirement for an act of Congress to abolish the Department of Education, established by the 1979 Organization Act, drives the 96.1% implied probability on “No.” The Trump administration has used executive orders, staff reductions, budget proposals, and interagency transfers to shrink operations and reassign functions, yet full termination needs House and Senate passage plus reconciliation of a filibuster. Bipartisan Senate resistance, limited Republican margins, and competing priorities have produced no such legislation to date. Midterm outcomes, appropriations fights, or court rulings on transfers could still shift the timeline before 2027, though structural barriers and divided congressional incentives keep the probability of formal elimination low.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano4% szansa
$12,313 Wol.
$12,313 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
4% szansa
$12,313 Wol.
$12,313 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Department of Education ceases operations entirely, including the termination of all federal educational programs managed by the department, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the US Department of Education is merged with another agency, resulting in a consolidated department with a shared administrative structure which is no longer titled the Department of Education it will count as a "Yes" resolution.
If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation/perform executive actions (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The requirement for an act of Congress to abolish the Department of Education, established by the 1979 Organization Act, drives the 96.1% implied probability on “No.” The Trump administration has used executive orders, staff reductions, budget proposals, and interagency transfers to shrink operations and reassign functions, yet full termination needs House and Senate passage plus reconciliation of a filibuster. Bipartisan Senate resistance, limited Republican margins, and competing priorities have produced no such legislation to date. Midterm outcomes, appropriations fights, or court rulings on transfers could still shift the timeline before 2027, though structural barriers and divided congressional incentives keep the probability of formal elimination low.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Department of Education ceases operations entirely, including the termination of all federal educational programs managed by the department, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the US Department of Education is merged with another agency, resulting in a consolidated department with a shared administrative structure which is no longer titled the Department of Education it will count as a "Yes" resolution.
If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation/perform executive actions (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If the US Department of Education is merged with another agency, resulting in a consolidated department with a shared administrative structure which is no longer titled the Department of Education it will count as a "Yes" resolution.
If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation/perform executive actions (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Nov 19, 2025, 3:24 PM ET
Wolumen
$12,313Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Nov 19, 2025, 3:24 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Department of Education ceases operations entirely, including the termination of all federal educational programs managed by the department, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the US Department of Education is merged with another agency, resulting in a consolidated department with a shared administrative structure which is no longer titled the Department of Education it will count as a "Yes" resolution.
If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation/perform executive actions (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The requirement for an act of Congress to abolish the Department of Education, established by the 1979 Organization Act, drives the 96.1% implied probability on “No.” The Trump administration has used executive orders, staff reductions, budget proposals, and interagency transfers to shrink operations and reassign functions, yet full termination needs House and Senate passage plus reconciliation of a filibuster. Bipartisan Senate resistance, limited Republican margins, and competing priorities have produced no such legislation to date. Midterm outcomes, appropriations fights, or court rulings on transfers could still shift the timeline before 2027, though structural barriers and divided congressional incentives keep the probability of formal elimination low.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Department of Education ceases operations entirely, including the termination of all federal educational programs managed by the department, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the US Department of Education is merged with another agency, resulting in a consolidated department with a shared administrative structure which is no longer titled the Department of Education it will count as a "Yes" resolution.
If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation/perform executive actions (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If the US Department of Education is merged with another agency, resulting in a consolidated department with a shared administrative structure which is no longer titled the Department of Education it will count as a "Yes" resolution.
If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation/perform executive actions (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Wolumen
$12,313Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Nov 19, 2025, 3:24 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...The requirement for an act of Congress to abolish the Department of Education, established by the 1979 Organization Act, drives the 96.1% implied probability on “No.” The Trump administration has used executive orders, staff reductions, budget proposals, and interagency transfers to shrink operations and reassign functions, yet full termination needs House and Senate passage plus reconciliation of a filibuster. Bipartisan Senate resistance, limited Republican margins, and competing priorities have produced no such legislation to date. Midterm outcomes, appropriations fights, or court rulings on transfers could still shift the timeline before 2027, though structural barriers and divided congressional incentives keep the probability of formal elimination low.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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