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icon for Russia military action against EU country by...?
Świat·NATO

Russia military action against EU country by...?

icon for Russia military action against EU country by...?
Świat·NATO

Russia military action against EU country by...?

$30,527 Wol.

Sep 30, 2026
Polymarket

$30,527 Wol.

Polymarket

September 30

$8,065 Wol.

3%

December 31

$22,462 Wol.

19%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia takes a qualifying military action against an EU member state between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Russia, that directly impacts an EU member state. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The qualifying military action must be carried out by the armed forces of Russia. Actions carried out by private military contractors, mercenaries, proxy forces, or the armed forces of any other state, including Belarus, will not qualify. An "EU member state" refers to any of the 27 member states of the European Union as of market creation: Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, and Sweden. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Sabotage, arson, or other covert acts not carried out with the munitions described above; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on an EU member state do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. Munitions that enter the territory of an EU member state in the course of a Russian attack on a non-EU country, including Ukraine, will not qualify unless a consensus of information available from the resolution sources indicates that the munition was directed at a target within the EU member state. A strike on an EU member state that is claimed by the Russian government or military will qualify. The territory of an EU member state refers to its terrestrial territory, including its internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Territories of member states to which the EU treaties do not apply, including Greenland, the Faroe Islands, and the overseas countries and territories associated with the EU, will not qualify. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the EU member state as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (ET) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Russia and the relevant EU member state, official information from NATO and the European Union, and a consensus of credible reporting.European governments are heightening preparations amid a surge in Russian hybrid and kinetic operations tied to the ongoing Ukraine conflict. Recent incidents include the German attribution of an August drone attack on Leipzig airport infrastructure, Romanian and Baltic airspace violations with injuries reported, and suspected sabotage targeting defense logistics. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk and French President Macron have publicly warned of possible drone or missile strikes on NATO territory in coming months, potentially framed as accidents to test Article 5 cohesion, while Belarusian exercises near the Suwałki Gap add pressure. Intelligence assessments from Czech, Latvian, and other services point to risks of limited incursions or provocations within months rather than years, though NATO maintains no imminent conventional threat exists. These developments, alongside European civil defense measures and U.S. diplomatic signals, shape trader views on escalation timelines.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia takes a qualifying military action against an EU member state between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Russia, that directly impacts an EU member state. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.

The qualifying military action must be carried out by the armed forces of Russia. Actions carried out by private military contractors, mercenaries, proxy forces, or the armed forces of any other state, including Belarus, will not qualify.

An "EU member state" refers to any of the 27 member states of the European Union as of market creation: Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, and Sweden.

The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Sabotage, arson, or other covert acts not carried out with the munitions described above;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.

Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on an EU member state do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.

Munitions that enter the territory of an EU member state in the course of a Russian attack on a non-EU country, including Ukraine, will not qualify unless a consensus of information available from the resolution sources indicates that the munition was directed at a target within the EU member state. A strike on an EU member state that is claimed by the Russian government or military will qualify.

The territory of an EU member state refers to its terrestrial territory, including its internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Territories of member states to which the EU treaties do not apply, including Greenland, the Faroe Islands, and the overseas countries and territories associated with the EU, will not qualify. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the EU member state as of market creation will qualify.

The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (ET) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.

The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Russia and the relevant EU member state, official information from NATO and the European Union, and a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia takes a qualifying military action against an EU member state between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Russia, that directly impacts an EU member state. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The qualifying military action must be carried out by the armed forces of Russia. Actions carried out by private military contractors, mercenaries, proxy forces, or the armed forces of any other state, including Belarus, will not qualify. An "EU member state" refers to any of the 27 member states of the European Union as of market creation: Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, and Sweden. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Sabotage, arson, or other covert acts not carried out with the munitions described above; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on an EU member state do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. Munitions that enter the territory of an EU member state in the course of a Russian attack on a non-EU country, including Ukraine, will not qualify unless a consensus of information available from the resolution sources indicates that the munition was directed at a target within the EU member state. A strike on an EU member state that is claimed by the Russian government or military will qualify. The territory of an EU member state refers to its terrestrial territory, including its internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Territories of member states to which the EU treaties do not apply, including Greenland, the Faroe Islands, and the overseas countries and territories associated with the EU, will not qualify. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the EU member state as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (ET) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Russia and the relevant EU member state, official information from NATO and the European Union, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$30,527
Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027
Rynek otwarty
Sep 18, 2026, 8:37 PM ET

Rozstrzygający

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia takes a qualifying military action against an EU member state between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Russia, that directly impacts an EU member state. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The qualifying military action must be carried out by the armed forces of Russia. Actions carried out by private military contractors, mercenaries, proxy forces, or the armed forces of any other state, including Belarus, will not qualify. An "EU member state" refers to any of the 27 member states of the European Union as of market creation: Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, and Sweden. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Sabotage, arson, or other covert acts not carried out with the munitions described above; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on an EU member state do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. Munitions that enter the territory of an EU member state in the course of a Russian attack on a non-EU country, including Ukraine, will not qualify unless a consensus of information available from the resolution sources indicates that the munition was directed at a target within the EU member state. A strike on an EU member state that is claimed by the Russian government or military will qualify. The territory of an EU member state refers to its terrestrial territory, including its internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Territories of member states to which the EU treaties do not apply, including Greenland, the Faroe Islands, and the overseas countries and territories associated with the EU, will not qualify. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the EU member state as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (ET) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Russia and the relevant EU member state, official information from NATO and the European Union, and a consensus of credible reporting.European governments are heightening preparations amid a surge in Russian hybrid and kinetic operations tied to the ongoing Ukraine conflict. Recent incidents include the German attribution of an August drone attack on Leipzig airport infrastructure, Romanian and Baltic airspace violations with injuries reported, and suspected sabotage targeting defense logistics. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk and French President Macron have publicly warned of possible drone or missile strikes on NATO territory in coming months, potentially framed as accidents to test Article 5 cohesion, while Belarusian exercises near the Suwałki Gap add pressure. Intelligence assessments from Czech, Latvian, and other services point to risks of limited incursions or provocations within months rather than years, though NATO maintains no imminent conventional threat exists. These developments, alongside European civil defense measures and U.S. diplomatic signals, shape trader views on escalation timelines.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia takes a qualifying military action against an EU member state between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Russia, that directly impacts an EU member state. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.

The qualifying military action must be carried out by the armed forces of Russia. Actions carried out by private military contractors, mercenaries, proxy forces, or the armed forces of any other state, including Belarus, will not qualify.

An "EU member state" refers to any of the 27 member states of the European Union as of market creation: Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, and Sweden.

The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Sabotage, arson, or other covert acts not carried out with the munitions described above;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.

Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on an EU member state do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.

Munitions that enter the territory of an EU member state in the course of a Russian attack on a non-EU country, including Ukraine, will not qualify unless a consensus of information available from the resolution sources indicates that the munition was directed at a target within the EU member state. A strike on an EU member state that is claimed by the Russian government or military will qualify.

The territory of an EU member state refers to its terrestrial territory, including its internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Territories of member states to which the EU treaties do not apply, including Greenland, the Faroe Islands, and the overseas countries and territories associated with the EU, will not qualify. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the EU member state as of market creation will qualify.

The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (ET) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.

The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Russia and the relevant EU member state, official information from NATO and the European Union, and a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia takes a qualifying military action against an EU member state between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Russia, that directly impacts an EU member state. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The qualifying military action must be carried out by the armed forces of Russia. Actions carried out by private military contractors, mercenaries, proxy forces, or the armed forces of any other state, including Belarus, will not qualify. An "EU member state" refers to any of the 27 member states of the European Union as of market creation: Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, and Sweden. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Sabotage, arson, or other covert acts not carried out with the munitions described above; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on an EU member state do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. Munitions that enter the territory of an EU member state in the course of a Russian attack on a non-EU country, including Ukraine, will not qualify unless a consensus of information available from the resolution sources indicates that the munition was directed at a target within the EU member state. A strike on an EU member state that is claimed by the Russian government or military will qualify. The territory of an EU member state refers to its terrestrial territory, including its internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Territories of member states to which the EU treaties do not apply, including Greenland, the Faroe Islands, and the overseas countries and territories associated with the EU, will not qualify. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the EU member state as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (ET) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Russia and the relevant EU member state, official information from NATO and the European Union, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$30,527
Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027
Rynek otwarty
Sep 18, 2026, 8:37 PM ET

Rozstrzygający

0x65070BE91...

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"Russia military action against EU country by...?" to rynek prognoz na Polymarket z 2 możliwymi wynikami, gdzie traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały na podstawie tego, co ich zdaniem się wydarzy. Obecny wiodący wynik to "December 31" z 19%, za nim "September 30" z 3%. Ceny odzwierciedlają zbiorowe prawdopodobieństwa w czasie rzeczywistym. Na przykład udział wyceniony na 19¢ implikuje, że rynek zbiorowo przypisuje 19% szansy na ten wynik. Te kursy zmieniają się ciągle, gdy traderzy reagują na nowe informacje. Udziały w poprawnym wyniku można wymienić na $1 za sztukę po rozstrzygnięciu rynku.

Na dzień dzisiejszy "Russia military action against EU country by...?" wygenerował $30.5K łącznego wolumenu od uruchomienia rynku Sep 18, 2026. Ten poziom aktywności handlowej odzwierciedla silne zaangażowanie społeczności Polymarket i pomaga zapewnić, że bieżące kursy są informowane przez głęboką pulę uczestników rynku. Możesz śledzić ruchy cen na żywo i handlować na dowolny wynik bezpośrednio na tej stronie.

Aby handlować na "Russia military action against EU country by...?", przeglądaj 2 dostępnych wyników na tej stronie. Każdy wynik wyświetla bieżącą cenę reprezentującą implikowane prawdopodobieństwo rynku. Aby zająć pozycję, wybierz wynik, który uważasz za najbardziej prawdopodobny, wybierz "Tak", aby handlować na jego korzyść, lub "Nie", aby handlować przeciw niemu, wpisz kwotę i kliknij "Handluj". Jeśli wybrany wynik okaże się poprawny, Twoje udziały "Tak" wypłacą $1 za sztukę. Jeśli jest niepoprawny, wypłacą $0. Możesz też sprzedać swoje udziały w dowolnym momencie przed rozstrzygnięciem.

Obecnym faworytem dla "Russia military action against EU country by...?" jest "December 31" z 19%, co oznacza, że rynek przypisuje 19% szansy na ten wynik. Następny najbliższy wynik to "September 30" z 3%. Te kursy aktualizują się w czasie rzeczywistym, gdy traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały, odzwierciedlając najnowszy zbiorowy pogląd na to, co jest najbardziej prawdopodobne. Sprawdzaj regularnie lub dodaj tę stronę do zakładek, aby śledzić zmiany kursów.

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