**United Russia’s projected party-list vote share in Russia’s State Duma elections, held 18–20 September 2026, has settled in the 55–60% range according to trader consensus.** Partial official counts from the Central Election Commission show the party at approximately 57–58% with tens of percent of protocols processed, supported by strong single-mandate constituency leads. The outcome reflects a controlled electoral environment in which genuine opposition was largely excluded, systemic parties aligned with Kremlin positions cleared the 5% threshold, and turnout reached roughly 56–57%. Pre-election state polls placed United Russia in the high 40s to low 50s, while independent surveys indicated lower figures; the final tally incorporates the mixed electoral system and regional mobilization. Late developments, including Ukrainian drone strikes during voting, did not materially alter the process. The market’s heavy weighting on 55–60% captures the narrow band consistent with historical performance and current partial results.