Greenland's current coalition government, led by the Demokraatit party since the March 2025 election, has prioritized gradual self-determination under the 2009 Self-Government Act and strengthened ties with Denmark over any near-term independence process. This stance hardened amid U.S. geopolitical interest, with Prime Minister Jens-Frederik Nielsen publicly favoring Copenhagen and ruling out swift separation. Recent polls indicate most Greenlanders oppose immediate independence, particularly if it risks living standards, while a constitutional commission's recommendations are not expected until late 2026 and no referendum timeline has been set. Traders' 95.8% implied probability for "No" reflects this absence of scheduled action or parliamentary momentum before year-end. A coalition shift, accelerated Denmark negotiations, or sharp change in public economic sentiment could still alter the outlook.