US President Donald Trump has repeatedly expressed interest in acquiring Greenland through purchase or other means since early 2025, citing national security and resource considerations, which prompted tariff threats against Denmark and European allies in January 2026 alongside initial refusal to rule out force. However, the Pentagon received no directives to develop invasion plans, and Trump later explicitly ruled out military action while engaging in negotiations facilitated by NATO. Denmark and Greenland have maintained firm opposition to any transfer of sovereignty, with European partners reinforcing Arctic presence in response. These diplomatic and institutional constraints, combined with the absence of any military mobilization or formal annexation efforts through September 2026, underpin traders' 97% consensus against a U.S. invasion this year. Late developments such as renewed bilateral security talks or shifts in Arctic priorities could still introduce limited uncertainty.