Trader consensus heavily favors "None in 2026" at 79% implied probability because frontier large language models remain clustered in the 1480–1506 Elo range on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard as of late September 2026, with Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.6 and Fable 5 variants holding the top spots near 1503–1507. Reaching the 1550 threshold would require an unusually rapid 45–70 point gain in the final three months of the year, exceeding recent incremental improvements driven by iterative training and post-training refinements. Anthropic’s 12.5% market-implied odds reflect its consistent lead in human-preference evaluations and multiple high-ranking releases, while OpenAI, Google, and others trail slightly behind with scores in the high 1480s. Limited time until year-end and the absence of verified capability jumps that could accelerate gains keep the probability of any single lab crossing the mark low.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoWhich company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?
Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?
None in 2026 78%
Anthropic 13%
OpenAI 4.1%
Google 1.8%
$126,226 Wol.
$126,226 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
None in 2026
79%
Anthropic
13%
OpenAI
4%
2%
xAI
1%
Alibaba
1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Mistral
<1%
None in 2026 78%
Anthropic 13%
OpenAI 4.1%
Google 1.8%
$126,226 Wol.
$126,226 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
None in 2026
$26,251 Wol.
79%
Anthropic
$18,694 Wol.
13%
OpenAI
$15,322 Wol.
4%
$12,081 Wol.
2%
xAI
$9,668 Wol.
1%
Alibaba
$11,378 Wol.
1%
DeepSeek
$13,542 Wol.
<1%
Z.ai
$9,817 Wol.
<1%
Mistral
$9,474 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Trader consensus heavily favors "None in 2026" at 79% implied probability because frontier large language models remain clustered in the 1480–1506 Elo range on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard as of late September 2026, with Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.6 and Fable 5 variants holding the top spots near 1503–1507. Reaching the 1550 threshold would require an unusually rapid 45–70 point gain in the final three months of the year, exceeding recent incremental improvements driven by iterative training and post-training refinements. Anthropic’s 12.5% market-implied odds reflect its consistent lead in human-preference evaluations and multiple high-ranking releases, while OpenAI, Google, and others trail slightly behind with scores in the high 1480s. Limited time until year-end and the absence of verified capability jumps that could accelerate gains keep the probability of any single lab crossing the mark low.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Rynek otwarty: Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ET
Wolumen
$126,226Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Trader consensus heavily favors "None in 2026" at 79% implied probability because frontier large language models remain clustered in the 1480–1506 Elo range on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard as of late September 2026, with Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.6 and Fable 5 variants holding the top spots near 1503–1507. Reaching the 1550 threshold would require an unusually rapid 45–70 point gain in the final three months of the year, exceeding recent incremental improvements driven by iterative training and post-training refinements. Anthropic’s 12.5% market-implied odds reflect its consistent lead in human-preference evaluations and multiple high-ranking releases, while OpenAI, Google, and others trail slightly behind with scores in the high 1480s. Limited time until year-end and the absence of verified capability jumps that could accelerate gains keep the probability of any single lab crossing the mark low.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Wolumen
$126,226Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors "None in 2026" at 79% implied probability because frontier large language models remain clustered in the 1480–1506 Elo range on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard as of late September 2026, with Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.6 and Fable 5 variants holding the top spots near 1503–1507. Reaching the 1550 threshold would require an unusually rapid 45–70 point gain in the final three months of the year, exceeding recent incremental improvements driven by iterative training and post-training refinements. Anthropic’s 12.5% market-implied odds reflect its consistent lead in human-preference evaluations and multiple high-ranking releases, while OpenAI, Google, and others trail slightly behind with scores in the high 1480s. Limited time until year-end and the absence of verified capability jumps that could accelerate gains keep the probability of any single lab crossing the mark low.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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