Sweden’s September 13, 2026, general election produced a narrow center-left majority of 176 seats to 173 for the right-wing bloc, triggering standard government-formation procedures rather than any immediate push for an early vote. Magdalena Andersson stepped back from leading coalition talks on September 28 after losing Left Party support, prompting Speaker Andreas Norlén to consult party leaders; under Riksdag rules, four rejected prime-minister candidates would be required before a snap election is mandated. No major party has signaled intent to force repeated rejections, and ongoing negotiations plus minor election-fraud probes have not altered the timeline for a new government. Traders therefore assign an 84.5% probability to no snap election occurring in 2026, consistent with historical patterns of eventual coalition agreement following close Swedish contests.