The Santa Catarina Senate contest features two seats decided by plurality on October 4, 2026, with voters selecting two distinct candidates. Recent August polling shows Esperidião Amin (PP), Carlos Bolsonaro (PL), and Carol de Toni (PL) locked in a technical tie for the top positions, with Amin at 19%, Bolsonaro at 16%, and de Toni at 12% in combined vote intention, alongside high undecided shares near 23%. The PL ticket pairs Bolsonaro, who relocated from Rio de Janeiro, with de Toni, a leading state deputy, behind Governor Jorginho Mello’s re-election bid, while Amin aligns with the opposing PSD-MDB front supporting João Rodrigues. This right-wing fragmentation, combined with Amin’s incumbency and local record versus the PL duo’s national profile and base mobilization, sustains the narrow spread in trader probabilities for first place. Additional late-cycle polling, turnout patterns among conservative voters, or campaign events could shift the ordering before ballots close.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoSanta Catarina Senate Election: 1st Place
Santa Catarina Senate Election: 1st Place
Esperidião Amin 39.0%
Carlos Bolsonaro 28%
Carol de Toni 21%
Décio Lima <1%
$28,926 Wol.
$28,926 Wol.
Esperidião Amin
39%
Carlos Bolsonaro
28%
Carol de Toni
21%
Décio Lima
1%
Marcos Dorval
1%
Marlene Soccas
<1%
Túlio de Amorim Pfuetzenreiter
<1%
Ana Lucia da Silveira Machado
<1%
Carol
<1%
Joaninha de Oliveira
<1%
Lunelli
<1%
Afrânio Boppré
<1%
Jeferson da Rocha
<1%
Esperidião Amin 39.0%
Carlos Bolsonaro 28%
Carol de Toni 21%
Décio Lima <1%
$28,926 Wol.
$28,926 Wol.
Esperidião Amin
39%
Carlos Bolsonaro
28%
Carol de Toni
21%
Décio Lima
1%
Marcos Dorval
1%
Marlene Soccas
<1%
Túlio de Amorim Pfuetzenreiter
<1%
Ana Lucia da Silveira Machado
<1%
Carol
<1%
Joaninha de Oliveira
<1%
Lunelli
<1%
Afrânio Boppré
<1%
Jeferson da Rocha
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Rynek otwarty: Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ET
Rozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Rozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...The Santa Catarina Senate contest features two seats decided by plurality on October 4, 2026, with voters selecting two distinct candidates. Recent August polling shows Esperidião Amin (PP), Carlos Bolsonaro (PL), and Carol de Toni (PL) locked in a technical tie for the top positions, with Amin at 19%, Bolsonaro at 16%, and de Toni at 12% in combined vote intention, alongside high undecided shares near 23%. The PL ticket pairs Bolsonaro, who relocated from Rio de Janeiro, with de Toni, a leading state deputy, behind Governor Jorginho Mello’s re-election bid, while Amin aligns with the opposing PSD-MDB front supporting João Rodrigues. This right-wing fragmentation, combined with Amin’s incumbency and local record versus the PL duo’s national profile and base mobilization, sustains the narrow spread in trader probabilities for first place. Additional late-cycle polling, turnout patterns among conservative voters, or campaign events could shift the ordering before ballots close.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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