Israel’s Central Elections Committee voted in late September 2026 to disqualify the Joint List—an alliance of Arab parties including Hadash, Ta’al, and Balad—from the October 27 Knesset election under Basic Law provisions on support for armed struggle or rejection of Israel as a Jewish and democratic state. The 18-5 decision followed similar moves against Ra’am and certain candidates, yet it remains subject to Supreme Court review. Historical precedent shows the Court applying a high evidentiary threshold and frequently overturning such political disqualifications, a view reinforced by the Attorney General’s assessment that evidence fell short. This institutional safeguard underpins the 96% implied probability that the Joint List will not be effectively barred, reflecting trader assessment of the Court’s likely role before election day. Late shifts could occur only if the Court departs from established standards in its imminent ruling.