The French Socialist primary, a closed two-round vote among Parti Socialiste, Place Publique, and Gauche républicaine et socialiste members scheduled for 9–10 October, features five qualified candidates after Philippe Brun’s exclusion over misconduct allegations. Raphaël Glucksmann leads as the early frontrunner with backing from regional figures like Carole Delga, yet Olivier Faure, Jérôme Guedj, Emmanuel Maurel, and Ségolène Royal fragment support across party factions. Upcoming televised debates in late September and early October, combined with ongoing internal divisions over strategy and voter eligibility, make a first-round majority unlikely. Traders price a runoff at 66% implied probability, consistent with the dispersed field and limited consolidation of preferences ahead of the October 16–17 second round.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano30% szansa
NOWE
NOWE
Oct 10, 2026
30% szansa
NOWE
NOWE
Oct 10, 2026
The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a candidate wins the French Socialist primary outright in the first round, such that no second round is held. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A candidate wins outright if they receive more than 50% of the votes cast in the first round, or if the organizers of the primary otherwise declare them the winner of the primary without a second round being held.
If the primary is cancelled, the first round does not take place, or the results thereof are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.The French Socialist primary, a closed two-round vote among Parti Socialiste, Place Publique, and Gauche républicaine et socialiste members scheduled for 9–10 October, features five qualified candidates after Philippe Brun’s exclusion over misconduct allegations. Raphaël Glucksmann leads as the early frontrunner with backing from regional figures like Carole Delga, yet Olivier Faure, Jérôme Guedj, Emmanuel Maurel, and Ségolène Royal fragment support across party factions. Upcoming televised debates in late September and early October, combined with ongoing internal divisions over strategy and voter eligibility, make a first-round majority unlikely. Traders price a runoff at 66% implied probability, consistent with the dispersed field and limited consolidation of preferences ahead of the October 16–17 second round.
The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a candidate wins the French Socialist primary outright in the first round, such that no second round is held. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A candidate wins outright if they receive more than 50% of the votes cast in the first round, or if the organizers of the primary otherwise declare them the winner of the primary without a second round being held.
If the primary is cancelled, the first round does not take place, or the results thereof are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a candidate wins the French Socialist primary outright in the first round, such that no second round is held. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A candidate wins outright if they receive more than 50% of the votes cast in the first round, or if the organizers of the primary otherwise declare them the winner of the primary without a second round being held.
If the primary is cancelled, the first round does not take place, or the results thereof are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.
Rynek otwarty: Sep 9, 2026, 6:30 PM ET
Wolumen
$645Data zakończenia
Oct 10, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 9, 2026, 6:30 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a candidate wins the French Socialist primary outright in the first round, such that no second round is held. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A candidate wins outright if they receive more than 50% of the votes cast in the first round, or if the organizers of the primary otherwise declare them the winner of the primary without a second round being held.
If the primary is cancelled, the first round does not take place, or the results thereof are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.The French Socialist primary, a closed two-round vote among Parti Socialiste, Place Publique, and Gauche républicaine et socialiste members scheduled for 9–10 October, features five qualified candidates after Philippe Brun’s exclusion over misconduct allegations. Raphaël Glucksmann leads as the early frontrunner with backing from regional figures like Carole Delga, yet Olivier Faure, Jérôme Guedj, Emmanuel Maurel, and Ségolène Royal fragment support across party factions. Upcoming televised debates in late September and early October, combined with ongoing internal divisions over strategy and voter eligibility, make a first-round majority unlikely. Traders price a runoff at 66% implied probability, consistent with the dispersed field and limited consolidation of preferences ahead of the October 16–17 second round.
The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a candidate wins the French Socialist primary outright in the first round, such that no second round is held. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A candidate wins outright if they receive more than 50% of the votes cast in the first round, or if the organizers of the primary otherwise declare them the winner of the primary without a second round being held.
If the primary is cancelled, the first round does not take place, or the results thereof are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a candidate wins the French Socialist primary outright in the first round, such that no second round is held. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A candidate wins outright if they receive more than 50% of the votes cast in the first round, or if the organizers of the primary otherwise declare them the winner of the primary without a second round being held.
If the primary is cancelled, the first round does not take place, or the results thereof are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.
Wolumen
$645Data zakończenia
Oct 10, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 9, 2026, 6:30 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...The French Socialist primary, a closed two-round vote among Parti Socialiste, Place Publique, and Gauche républicaine et socialiste members scheduled for 9–10 October, features five qualified candidates after Philippe Brun’s exclusion over misconduct allegations. Raphaël Glucksmann leads as the early frontrunner with backing from regional figures like Carole Delga, yet Olivier Faure, Jérôme Guedj, Emmanuel Maurel, and Ségolène Royal fragment support across party factions. Upcoming televised debates in late September and early October, combined with ongoing internal divisions over strategy and voter eligibility, make a first-round majority unlikely. Traders price a runoff at 66% implied probability, consistent with the dispersed field and limited consolidation of preferences ahead of the October 16–17 second round.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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