**Trader consensus on the low likelihood of a tariff dividend by December 31, 2026, stems primarily from persistent gaps between projected tariff revenue and the scale of proposed payments.** Annual net customs receipts have run under $200 billion in recent fiscal periods, while estimates for a $2,000 or $5,000 per-adult distribution exceed $450 billion to over $1.2 trillion. A February 2026 Supreme Court ruling invalidated key prior tariff authorities, further constraining available funds. Trump has floated multiple versions of tariff-funded rebates since late 2025, with timelines repeatedly shifted from mid-2026 to year-end or later, yet no authorizing legislation has advanced and no payments have been issued. Recent $5,000 dividend pledges tied to November 2026 midterm outcomes would still require congressional action or new legal mechanisms unlikely to clear by the market deadline. These fiscal, legal, and procedural hurdles underpin the 93% implied probability for “No.”
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日7% 確率
新規
新規
2026/12/31
7% 確率
新規
新規
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Trader consensus on the low likelihood of a tariff dividend by December 31, 2026, stems primarily from persistent gaps between projected tariff revenue and the scale of proposed payments.** Annual net customs receipts have run under $200 billion in recent fiscal periods, while estimates for a $2,000 or $5,000 per-adult distribution exceed $450 billion to over $1.2 trillion. A February 2026 Supreme Court ruling invalidated key prior tariff authorities, further constraining available funds.
Trump has floated multiple versions of tariff-funded rebates since late 2025, with timelines repeatedly shifted from mid-2026 to year-end or later, yet no authorizing legislation has advanced and no payments have been issued. Recent $5,000 dividend pledges tied to November 2026 midterm outcomes would still require congressional action or new legal mechanisms unlikely to clear by the market deadline. These fiscal, legal, and procedural hurdles underpin the 93% implied probability for “No.”
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Jun 29, 2026, 3:13 PM ET
音量
$3,014終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Jun 29, 2026, 3:13 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Trader consensus on the low likelihood of a tariff dividend by December 31, 2026, stems primarily from persistent gaps between projected tariff revenue and the scale of proposed payments.** Annual net customs receipts have run under $200 billion in recent fiscal periods, while estimates for a $2,000 or $5,000 per-adult distribution exceed $450 billion to over $1.2 trillion. A February 2026 Supreme Court ruling invalidated key prior tariff authorities, further constraining available funds.
Trump has floated multiple versions of tariff-funded rebates since late 2025, with timelines repeatedly shifted from mid-2026 to year-end or later, yet no authorizing legislation has advanced and no payments have been issued. Recent $5,000 dividend pledges tied to November 2026 midterm outcomes would still require congressional action or new legal mechanisms unlikely to clear by the market deadline. These fiscal, legal, and procedural hurdles underpin the 93% implied probability for “No.”
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$3,014終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Jun 29, 2026, 3:13 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...**Trader consensus on the low likelihood of a tariff dividend by December 31, 2026, stems primarily from persistent gaps between projected tariff revenue and the scale of proposed payments.** Annual net customs receipts have run under $200 billion in recent fiscal periods, while estimates for a $2,000 or $5,000 per-adult distribution exceed $450 billion to over $1.2 trillion. A February 2026 Supreme Court ruling invalidated key prior tariff authorities, further constraining available funds. Trump has floated multiple versions of tariff-funded rebates since late 2025, with timelines repeatedly shifted from mid-2026 to year-end or later, yet no authorizing legislation has advanced and no payments have been issued. Recent $5,000 dividend pledges tied to November 2026 midterm outcomes would still require congressional action or new legal mechanisms unlikely to clear by the market deadline. These fiscal, legal, and procedural hurdles underpin the 93% implied probability for “No.”
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問